Information about buy generic viagra online





 
MaleExtra

Homeland Security Watch
=======================

News and analysis of critical issues in homeland security
---------------------------------------------------------
Home

About
Contributors

Contact
April 29, 2010

ca·tas·tro·phe kuh-tas-truh-fee noun
Filed under: Risk Assessment, Strategy — by Philip J. Palin on April
29, 2010

A great, often sudden calamity.
A complete failure; a fiasco: The food was cold, the guests
quarreled—the whole dinner was a catastrophe.

The concluding action of a drama, especially a classical tragedy,
following the climax and containing a resolution of the plot.
A sudden violent change in the earth’s surface; a cataclysm.

Origin in English: 1540, “reversal of what is expected” (especially a
fatal turning point in a drama), from Gk. katastrephein “to overturn,”
from kata “down” + strephein “turn” (see strophe). Extension to
“sudden disaster” is first recorded 1748.
(See more at dictionary.com)

Catastrophe is not a synonym for disaster. Nor is it just a really bad
disaster. Catastrophe is measured less in lives lost or financial cost
and much more in a consensus that the survivors’ future direction has
been fundamentally altered.
By objective measure the death, injury, and destruction involved can
be little out of the ordinary. But something in the time, place, or
means of the event creates a shared sense of profound discontinuity.
In a true catastrophe this discontinuity is confirmed by subsequent
events.

In his analysis of tragedy, Aristotle explains that katastrophe (often
translated as reversal of fortune), “is a change by which the action
veers round to its opposite… Thus in the Oedipus, the messenger comes
to cheer Oedipus and free him from his alarms about his mother, but by
revealing who he is, he produces the opposite effect.” (Aristotle,
Poetics XI)
Edmund Spenser adapted the Greek into English. For the contemporary of
Shakespeare, poet, and critic, catastrophe is a final ending, a
closing, and an explanation of what went on before. The theater of
Spenser’s period often featured a sudden plot twist (the Greek strophe
means to twist, turn, or plait). Spenser’s catastrophe explains the
sudden shift. Today we would more likely use denouement – a French
loan-word – for this purpose.

In 1755 Samuel Johnson explained in his Dictionary that, “catastrophe
is the change or revolution which produces the final event of a
dramatick piece, a final event, generally unhappy.” Notice the
evolution. Catastrophe is no longer the explanation of the change, but
the change itself. A change worthy of catastrophe is significant,
unexpected, even revolutionary.
More recently Judge Richard Posner has written a catastrophe is, “an
event that is believed to have a very low probability of materializing
but that if it does materialize will produce harm so great and sudden
as to seem discontinuous with the flow of events that preceded it.” (Catastrophe:
Risk and Response). While less than elegant, Posner’s definition is
helpful in highlighting how catastrophe is different from disaster:

“low probability of materializing” and therefore unexpected, most
 of our disasters are not only expected, but seasonal.
“harm so great and sudden” retrieves the ancient aspect of not
 just unexpected, but being precipitous and dramatic, and as a
 result having particular shock value.

“as to seem discontinuous with the flow of events that preceded”
 is especially important in highlighting the key aspect of how the
 meaning of the event is perceived. Aristotle might ask, “Is the
 event understood as beginning, middle, or end?”
The National Response Framework defines catastrophe as, “any natural
or manmade incident, including terrorism, that results in
extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption
severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment,
economy, national morale, and/or government functions.

The NRF definition has preserved some of the dramatic elements of
catastrophe in pointing to extraordinary and severe outcomes. The
shock value may be embedded in concern for “national morale.” But the
NRF’s authors have neglected the role of surprise and the key role of
a sudden shift in story-line, the reversal of what has been expected.
My own definition: A catastrophe is an event that involves an unusual
scale of death, injury and destruction; experienced – directly or
indirectly – across a broad scope of territory and/or by a substantial
population; involving wide-spread secondary effects that amplify the
original scope and scale of the event; perceived by most as a complete
surprise; and which transforms the society’s sense of self (generally
unhappy, but I am personally interested in how such
reversal-of-fortune might also be for the good).

To engage the risk of catastrophe it is necessary to deal effectively
with each of these issues: scale, scope, secondary effects, surprise,
and the social definition of the event’s meaning. In scanning many
so-called catastrophes, it seems to me that surprise and society’s
perception of the event have the greatest influence. The less
surprise, the more confident the society’s response; the more
confident the society’s response, the less catastrophic the perceived
results. The less catastrophic the perception, the more complete – and
even improved – the recovery.
For further consideration:

Earthly Powers: Disasters are about People and Planning (The
Economist, April 24, 2010)
Worst-Case Scenarios by Cass Sunstein

Catastrophe Theory by Vladimir I. Arnold
Reading List for a graduate course in catastrophe offered by The
London Consortium.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   9 Comments »

April 28, 2010
But Wait, There’s More!

Filed under: Border Security, General Homeland Security, Immigration,
Strategy — by Mark Chubb on April 28, 2010
Like many other policy wonks, I like few things better than a powerful
metaphor that describes the state of thinking on an important issue or
question. One of the comments provided in response to Jessica
Herrera-Flanagan’s post last week presented just such an opportunity.
Defining the mission of the Department of Homeland Security — and
possibly by extension all of homeland security — in terms of
gatekeeping and coordination gave me just such food for thought.

The power of a metaphor is sometimes not what it describes, but what
it does not. That was the case for me in this instance.
Having spent most of my career working in or near local government, I
have acquired a different, more instrumental view of the role of
government as a provider and protector. As such, I usually see the
range of options as representing a broad continuum of overlapping
alternatives rather than a simple choice between competing conceptions
of the good or right. These alternatives almost invariably involve
subtle distinctions about the level or nature of the engagement
between government and other stakeholders required to achieve a
particular set of outcomes.

This framing helps me attend to both the means and the ends, because
both matter to constituents and citizens. This is important, because
it is often difficult to discern which will matter more in any given
circumstance until a particular situation arises.
So what does this continuum look like for homeland security? I equate
gatekeeping with command/control interventions where the output (keep
undocumented an undesirable immigrants from entering the country)
substitutes for the intended outcome (protect individual citizens, the
society, its culture, and the economy from the adverse effects of
illegal immigration). Coordination equates with little more than
avoiding or minimizing conflicts rather than sharing the process of
making meaning through the definition and resolution of those
conflicts that inevitably arise in any complex, interdependent
relationship.

Gatekeeping, as a command/control strategy, does a good job of
avoiding the trap of focusing on inputs or input-output relationship
while leaving unexplored the larger question of whether or not the
output and outcome (secure borders and unfettered liberty) are related
much less the same. Coordination all too often falls into the same
trap, by assuming too much about the nature of the ends/means
dichotomy and the relationships of these parts and the stakeholders to
them. Perhaps this explains why our current approach to homeland
security, especially as it relates to immigration control, is such a
dismal failure?
communication-inspiration-continuum-b-w1

What then are the alternatives? Before considering alternatives we
need to distinguish between means and ends. When we focus on the
means, especially when we assume the goals or outcomes are already
well-understood and shared by all participants, we may find it both
expedient and efficient to focus our energy through command strategies
that require little inspiration (especially on the parts of others)
and only one-way communication (from us to them).
When the ends are shared, but multiple paths lead to the same
destination and there is some risk that participants left to choose
their own way will select intersecting paths that create conflicts at
key junctions, we may engage strategies that seek to avoid or minimize
the potential for such conflicts. Again, these strategies require
little inspiration on the part of others. On the other hand,
decision-makers and leaders do need sufficient imagination to foresee
potential conflicts, especially if you hope to communicate your
understanding of the end-game in terms clear enough and compelling
enough to gain the parties’ consent to take actions that get everyone
to their destination without getting in the each other’s way.

When means are scarce or ends require you to mobilize the efforts of
others (sound familiar), a cooperation strategy often makes sense.
Such a strategy involves commitments, which require a more inspired
view of what’s at stake or what’s to be gained by one or all
participants. As the number of participants, the complexity of the
processes involved, or the scope and scale of the products expected to
result from the processes expand, so too does the need for
communication among those involved.
Complex problems, especially those that defy straightforward
solutions, usually require a more inspired approach, which often if
not always, requires participants to share commitments to both the
means and the ends. A true collaboration does not require anyone to
sacrifice their identity, but it does require them to work together in
ways that create shared objectives and meaning, both of which often
take the form of sacrifices for the sake of success.

Each of these strategies builds on the other. Even in a large and
complex collaboration, some elements of a shared program may depend
upon simpler strategies that involve cooperation, coordination or even
outright command approaches. What gives these tactics meaning is the
shared commitment among participants to defining when, where, how and
by whom these approaches are employed.
What does all of this have to do with homeland security? Well in the
case of border control for just one issue, the nation remains deeply
divided about the nature of the problem. With the possible exception
of the people of First Nations, we share an immigrant past. Our
economy today depends in no small way on the contributions of
immigrants, many of whom arrived here legally and others who did not.
Even those here without appropriate documentation or legal status
often contribute not only their labor, but their wealth to support the
state and its citizen even when they themselves can neither access nor
enjoy many of these services such as health care, social security,
workers’ compensation insurance, and unemployment benefits.

The threats posed by illegal immigrants often arise not from their
status or their habits, but the criminalization of their status by the
host society. When we make it impossible for immigrants to participate
freely much less fully in our society, we leave them little choice but
to fend for themselves or find another way. All too often, they find
the only way open to them is to associate with elements who have no
regard for either their welfare or ours.
Applying a different lens to a homeland security issue like
immigration and border control allows us to see the folly of our
current approach. Gatekeepers can never fully secure our borders. Even
if they could, some legal immigrants would find compelling reasons to
remain in the country beyond the limits imposed by their visas.
Criminalizing their status makes it more difficult to resolve the
issues their continued presence presents to both us and them.

When people are forced to choose between liberty and security, as we
have seen time and again since 9/11, they will almost always choose
security. What then would happen if we choose to coordinate,
cooperate, or even collaborate to resolve the issues related to
immigration and border control?
Working with immigrant communities, immigrants’ home countries, local
employers, labor unions, and government officials at every level to
provide legal paths to economic participation and citizenship serves
everyone’s interests. Such an approach does not involve an open door
policy, but neither does it mean closing the gate after the horse
bolts.

A collaboration would require careful consideration of the needs that
inspire immigration and provide a safe haven for undocumented
immigrants once they arrive. Such an understanding requires two-way,
if not multi-way, communication that creates a clear understanding of
the labor markets and conditions among all participants so they can
craft safe, secure pathways for participation that not only meet
everyone’s needs. Doing so would help temper prospective immigrants’
expectations while affording those who play by the rules appropriate
opportunities to climb the ladder toward acquiring citizenship or
permanent residence.
Such a process would not eliminate the need to set immigration
standards, control borders, or deport those who violate the laws. We
would still need to apply command/control and coordination strategies,
but their place in striking a balance between security and liberty
would be better defined and tied to an understanding of the economic
incentives that inspire immigration. Moving toward creating such as
system would require us to abandon an approach that does little more
than make de facto criminals of those who come here to make a
contribution that arguably provides mutual benefits to both them and
us.

If we want more security when it comes to immigration and border
control, we need to acknowledge and accept the inspirational power of
liberty, in both an economic and cultural sense. If we take concrete
steps to expand access to it among those willing to work with us to
build the nation, we will not only expand prosperity but extend the
legacy of diversity that immigration has granted us as well. Together
these benefits will almost certainly promote more stable, just, and
secure borders and border control arrangements in the process.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   2 Comments »
April 27, 2010

Homeland Security in states, cities and other locales: a 30,000 foot
view
Filed under: State and Local HLS — by Christopher Bellavita on April
27, 2010

Since 2003, a group of my professional colleagues has been conducting
half-day seminars on homeland security issues across the country.
To date, over 170 of these seminars have been held in state capitals,
and in urban and rural areas. The attendees generally include the
jurisdictions’ chief executives and other leaders with homeland
security responsibilities.

A typical seminar is three to four hours, and is built around one or
more incidents. It is similar to a tabletop exercise in many respects.
But calling it a seminar is intended to emphasize the educational — as
opposed to the training — nature of the conversation.
The objectives of individual seminars differ. But the basic purpose is
to take a snapshot of where a particular jurisdiction is with respect
to homeland security, and to discuss how to improve its preparedness.

Here is a summary of the most recent - early 2010 — aggregate
observations from the seminars (provided to me by a colleague who
participates in most of the sessions).
What contributes to success.

Since 2003, the level of homeland security sophistication at all
 levels of government has substantially increased. The result is an
 overall increase in the level of preparedness across the country.
Despite political and bureaucratic rivalries, state and local
 leaders generally accepted the preparedness challenge following
 September 11, 2001.

While initially cumbersome and sometimes controversial, homeland
 security grant funds have contributed to enhancing capabilities —
 equipment, training, and policy. It is unlikely those capabilities
 would have increased without the grant funds.
State and urban law enforcement executives have made a strong
 commitment to establish intelligence fusion centers and tactical
 response teams. This also has enhanced national preparedness.

Continuing challenges
Coordination between federal, state and local governments, and
 private sector partners to prevent, prepare for, and respond to
 acts of terrorism and other disasters has improved. But in many
 locales coordination is still problematic.

Balancing preparedness for natural disasters versus terrorism
 related emergencies remains a difficult task.
Protection and resiliency of cyber and other critical
 infrastructure against acts of terrorism and natural disasters
 remains insufficient.

There is a continuing need to address emerging threats through the
 development and deployment of nuclear, biological, chemical, and
 radiological detection capabilities.
Sharing information and intelligence between federal, state, local
 agencies, and the private sector remains a work in progress. While
 there has been significant success over the past seven years,
 information sharing requires additional attention.

Problem areas related to risk
Eight and a half years after the 2001 attacks, the country still
 does not have a national prevention strategy or a framework for
 prevention.

Many states lack the baseline knowledge needed to allow them to
 assess their vulnerabilities.
The nation continues to lack a culture of preventative risk
 management, where public, private, and nonprofit organizations
 collaborate in a shared effort to reduce risk.

With some exceptions, private and nonprofit organizations are not
 included in public planning for risk management.
There is a continuing need to identify cost-effective ways for
 organizations to calibrate their response to risk more
 appropriately and more efficiently than is currently the case.

Attention to food security and safety issues needs to become a
 higher priority.
Where critical problem areas remain

There has been limited success translating emerging threats into
 state and local actions, primarily because of the many real and
 perceived limits on states and cities.
State and local budget deficits are likely to affect implementing
 plans for increased readiness. This is particularly true since
 many jurisdictions do not perceive the current threat of major
 terrorist attacks to be high.

There remains a lack of substantial progress building adequate
 medical surge capacity across the nation.
There has been limited success collaboratively addressing the
 threat of cyber attacks.

The response capabilities for improvised explosive devices (IEDs)
 and improvised nuclear devices (INDs) remains inadequate to meet
 the demands of the changing threat environment.
It is becoming increasingly difficult in cities and states to
 sustain a commitment to homeland security and to avoid
 complacency.

The future of state and local sustainment
State and local contributions to homeland security spending is at
 risk.

At least 48 states have to address shortfalls in their fiscal year
 2010 budgets. As of February 2010, shortfalls exceeded $150
 billion.
At least 36 states already anticipate deficits in 2011. By some
 authoritative estimates, the next fiscal year’s deficits could
 exceed $180 billion.

There will be 37 races for governor in 2010.
Because of term limitations and voluntary decisions not to seek
 reelection, there will be at least 21 new governors after the
 November 2010 elections.

2010-governor-race002
New governors and mayors face economic, education, and many other
policy demands.

How will homeland security stack up against those competing
priorities?
Any bets?

Now visualize the same bet if there is an attack or a nationally
devastating catastrophe.
—————————————

In 1787, Thomas Jefferson wrote “The tree of liberty must be refreshed
from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”
He could have been talking about homeland security.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   4 Comments »

April 26, 2010
Immigration: Front and Center

Filed under: Immigration — by Jessica Herrera-Flanigan on April 26,
2010
Immigration reform promises to be the hot topic in the coming weeks as
it has moved up the list of policy priorities, thanks in part to a new
Arizona law.

On Saturday, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer signed into law SB1070, which
requires Arizona police to question anyone “reasonably suspected” of
being undocumented. Under existing law, they could only require
information on someone’s status if the person is suspected of a crime.
Legal immigrants are required to have their immigration paperwork
handy. The law is the most restrictive state immigration law in the
nation and has generated a great deal of attention, especially for its
potential to encourage racial profiling.
On Friday, President Obama criticized the bill and has ordered the
Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division to monitor developments to
assure that civil rights are not being violated.

On the Hill, the leading players on immigration reform have been
Senators Schumer and Graham, who have been working on a bipartisan
piece of legislation that addresses the three prongs of immigration:
1) Enforcement, 2) Future Flow, and 3) Pathway to Citizenship. In late
March, the Senators announced a framework for their bill, which was
endorsed by President Obama. They have been working on gaining
additional support, especially from Republicans, when the Arizona law
came along.
As the Arizona legislation was considering SB1070, Senators McCain and
Kyl released a Ten Point Border Security Action Plan that included the
deployment of 3,000 National Guard troops along the border, along with
3,000 Customs and Border Protection agents and lots and lots of miles
of fence. Both are advocating a border security first approach to
addressing immigration issues. Ironically, both Senators were
supportive of past efforts to pass comprehensive immigration reform
but are now asserting that the federal government is not doing enough
to secure the border.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid indicated last week to
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that immigration might be next on the
agenda for the Senate, ahead of climate change which many thought was
next in the queue. His remarks follow similar comments he made in
Arizona that he was committed to immigration reform. Senator Schumer
is expected to reach out to a number of Republican Senators, including
those President Obama called last week - Senators Brown, Murkowski,
LeMieux, Lugar, and Gregg - in order to get a deal that can move
forward.
Complicating things is that Senator Graham is also the leading
Republican on the bipartisan climate change legislation. The unveiling
of that bill, which was supposed to be released by Senators Kerry,
Lieberman, and Graham today, has temporarily been canceled. While
Senator Graham has not walked away from discussions with Senator
Schumer, he did send out a letter to many involved in the climate bill
process, stating that his participation in climate discussions was
being adversely affected by Senator Reid’s decision to move
immigration next.

In the House, Speaker Pelosi has indicated that the House will move
immigration legislation — if the Senate passes something first.
A lot of activity with lots more expected. There is little question
that immigration reform is much needed — the question for policymakers
is how to do it successfully so as not to replicate the failures of
the 2007 attempt to address the issue.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   3 Comments »

April 23, 2010
Homeland Security - What Is it?

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Jessica Herrera-Flanigan
on April 23, 2010
In last Sunday’s Washington Post Magazine, Homeland Security Secretary
Janet Napolitano offers the “First Person Singular” view of her job at
DHS and how she got to it. She recounts her path to Secretary,
revealing tidbits of memories from growing up in New Mexico and
Arizona. It is an interesting yet short read that gives a personalized
view of the Secretary in her own words. Near the end of the piece she
writes “There’s almost nothing I’ve done that doesn’t touch upon DHS.
The department crosses so many things.”

Those two sentences summarizes the struggle that has and will likely
to continue to face the fledgling agency. It is a question that many
of us working in the space have asked ourselves - what is Homeland
Security? Is it anything and/or everything?
Fellow HLSWatch contributor Chris Bellavita wrote an article in June
2008 in Homeland Security Affairs exploring this very question. He
asserted that there were seven defensible definitions of homeland
security: terrorism, all hazards, terrorism and catastrophes,
jurisdictional hazards, meta hazards, national security, and security
uber alles.

Looking for more of a concrete answer, I turned to the Internet and
social media.
In the About the Department section of DHS’s website, we learn that “The
Department of Homeland Security has a vital mission: to secure the
nation from the many threats we face. This requires the dedication of
more than 230,000 employees in jobs that range from aviation and
border security to emergency response, from cybersecurity analyst to
chemical facility inspector. Our duties are wide-ranging, but our goal
is clear – keeping America safe.”

Wikipedia tells us that homeland security “is an umbrella term for
security efforts to protect the United States against perceived
internal and external threats.”
The White House’s homeland security page, has a wide-range of issues
listed as areas in which the Administration has made progress, from
strategies for Afghanistan and Pakistan, to disaster relief, to border
security, to cybersecurity, to surface transportation security. In the
Guiding Principles section of the site, we learn that:

The President’s highest priority is to keep the American people safe.
He is committed to ensuring the United States is true to our values
and ideals while also protecting the American people. The President is
committed to securing the homeland against 21st century threats by
preventing terrorist attacks and other threats against our homeland,
preparing and planning for emergencies, and investing in strong
response and recovery capabilities. We will help ensure that the
Federal Government works with states and local governments, and the
private sector as close partners in a national approach to prevention,
mitigation, and response.
Still searching for an answer or definition, I took to Facebook and
posted the question “What is Homeland Security?” on my status update,
soliciting opinions from friends across the geographic and political
spectrum. The responses I received were as diverse as the group who
responded.

On one side, many folks raised concerns that homeland security was
often perceived as being just one thing or another -aviation security,
border security, or disaster relief, to the detriment of other areas.
On the other side, I heard from folks - some who were in the trenches
of operational issues - that components under DHS were “distracted”
from their original missions. One person wrote about appearance versus
security, noting “DHS needs to be less about the appearance of
presence and more about the vigorous attention needed to ensure that
our ports (both sea and air) and borders are adequately guarded.”
In the end, views from Facebook were as varied as those I had heard
from experts and policy wonks inside the beltway, with each focusing
on their little part of homeland security or asserting that homeland
security had to be a little bit of anything and everything.

Of course, the challenge of being anything and everything is that the
universe of what is covered is constantly expanding. As we have
experienced over the past several years, it is not difficult to add
the word “security” to an issue and have a homeland security matter on
one’s hands. Add in the possibility that folks will substitute
“security” for “safety,” and DHS’ universe could be infinite.
Maybe homeland security is just indicative of today’s busy lifestyles
where people are constantly multi-tasking and trying to do anything
and everything. I did a search online and found an article entitled “You
can do anything - but not everything,” published by Fast Company
magazine in 2000. The piece quotes a personal productivity expert who
says that the real challenge in life is not managing one’s time, but
managing one’s focus: “If you get too wrapped up in all of the stuff
coming at you, you lose your ability to respond appropriately and
effectively.”

The article’s conclusion, echoing its title, is that “You can do
anything — but not everything.”
Unfortunately, that simply is not an answer for Secretary Napolitano
and the Department of Homeland Security. Perhaps it really is about
what Chris concluded in his 2008 article:

The absence of agreement can be seen as grist for the continued
evolution of homeland security as a practice and as an idea.
Even if people did agree to define homeland security with a single
voice, there would still be the matter of behavior. What people,
organizations, and jurisdictions do is as instructive as what they
say.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   10 Comments »

April 22, 2010
No rush to judgment here

Filed under: Organizational Issues, Strategy — by Philip J. Palin on
April 22, 2010
Late last week Secretary Napolitano was in the Boston area. She
announced a new grant for Logan airport, visited with the Boston
police commissioner and Cambridge firefighters, officiated at the
swearing-in of new citizens, gave a speech at Harvard, and had a
round-table discussion with nine college presidents. (Do you
occasionally worry our cabinet secretaries have been remade into
little more than mouthpieces, kept busy doing testimony, media
interviews, speeches, and announcements?)

In a read-out of the closed door session with higher education leaders
DHS tells us, “During the meeting, Secretary Napolitano highlighted
the Department’s strong partnerships with universities including
support for training, coursework in homeland security-related fields
and industries, and for research and development in science and
technology, such as the DHS Centers of Excellence, which bring
together multidisciplinary homeland security research and education
assets of more than 200 institutions across the country.”
The Boston Globe reports, “she was in Cambridge meeting with college
and university presidents to discuss new courses and majors aimed at
preparing graduates to enter the field of cybersecurity.” In remarks
at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government the Secretary noted,
“Combating the cyber threat is going to require a partnership among
government, academia, and the private sector as ambitious and
sustained as any our nation has seen before. And I should say to the
bright students here that DHS wants the best minds coming out of our
universities to come join us in this effort.”

I have a second-hand report (good enough for a blog?) that the session
with university presidents was mostly about science and technology
research grants, not about homeland security education or professional
development. This is not a surprise and says much more about the role
of modern universities and their presidents, than about homeland
security or the Secretary. (And suggests homeland security officials
are not the only ones with a serious grants habit, see Dan O’Connor’s
Tuesday post.)
On the same day the Secretary of Homeland Security was meeting with
higher education leaders in Boston, the Secretary of Education, Arne
Duncan, was in Atlanta. According to Georgia Public Broadcasting,
“Duncan paid a visit telling students that America has to educate
itself to a better economy by improving science, technology,
engineering and math, or STEM subjects.”

The Quadrennial Homeland Security Review (QHSR) released in February
emphasizes, “Maturing and strengthening the homeland security
enterprise includes enhancing shared awareness of risks and threats,
building capable communities, fostering unity of effort, and fostering
innovative approaches and solutions through leading-edge science and
technology.”
Am I working too hard to connect some dots (smudges?) or might there
be a pattern here?

Science and technology - like mom and apple pie - attract widespread
support. Investments in research and development for these
hard-subjects (”hard” as in practical and difficult) are measurable
and meaningful… for me too.
But read the QHSR’s paragraph again. What is the role of science and
technology in shared awareness of risk and threats? We have lots of
technology to gather, sort and display information on risks and
threats. What we don’t have is a shared understanding of what is
meaningful to gather, what is helpful to sort, and how to interpret
the results. That’s a judgment call.

How about building capable communities? Science and technology
certainly have a role in infrastructure development. But given the
QHSR’s attention to psychological and community resilience, I perceive
its definition of “capable” goes well beyond the boundaries of science
and technology. How do we build a capable community? It depends on the
context of the particular community, doesn’t it? It depends on the
purposes we seek to advance, doesn’t it? Capable of what? It’s a
judgment call.
Scan the QHSR table of contents and there are plenty of opportunities
for science and technology to support good judgment. But mostly we are
given complex, constantly changing contexts beyond the capacity of
precise prediction.

Once upon a time, we presumed to teach good judgment. This was always
a dicey business. Since the 1960s - after what many saw as a series of
profoundly bad judgments - the notion of good judgment has been widely
discredited as self-serving fiction.
In this we have neglected to understand how and why well-intentioned
men (mostly) made tragically flawed judgments. We are increasingly
inclined to ex post facto assessments of every judgment. If we like
the results, the judgment is good. If the result is not satisfactory,
there can now be a compulsion to uncover deceit and deception. And in
any case, the culture insists that threat, vulnerability and
consequence should be predictable.

In this confidence regarding predictability we are, I perceive,
indulging the fatal flaw at the heart of the worst kind of judgment.
In those ancient days when we earnestly endeavored to teach good
judgment, we learned that hubris - trying to control what is beyond
our control - is the tripwire for tragedy. Toward the end of his life
Robert McNamara wrote, “…it’s beyond the ability of the human mind to
comprehend. Our judgment, our understanding, are not adequate.” This
is the beginning of wisdom. McGeorge Bundy, another of the Sixties
best and brightest, tells us, “There is no safety in unlimited
technological hubris.” Two of the tragedy’s main characters seemed to
learned its lesson. But those of us in the audience?
How do we choose well when we cannot - when no one can - be sure of
the outcome? How do we choose well when the risks of failure are real?
How do we choose well when threats are unpredictable, vulnerabilities
are inherent to our liberty, and the consequences could be
catastrophic? It’s a judgment call.

Is it too late to retrieve - or create anew - the teaching and
learning of good judgment?
For further consideration:

Nicomachean Ethics by Aristotle
Aristotle’s Ethics by Richard Kraut (Stanford Encyclopedia of
Philosophy)

Making a Necessity of Virtue: Aristotle and Kant on Virtue by Nancy
Sherman The Aims of Education by Alfred North Whitehead Educating the
Reflective Practitioner by Donald A. Schon
Justice: A Journey in Moral Reasoning by Michael J. Sandel (video)Share
This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   7 Comments »
April 21, 2010

Volunteer Does Not Equal Free
Filed under: Budgets and Spending, General Homeland Security,
Organizational Issues, Preparedness and Response, State and Local HLS
— by Mark Chubb on April 21, 2010

Monday night, I fronted up to a meeting of my community’s Neighborhood
Emergency Team (NET) volunteer leaders. (NET is our local
implementation of the Community Emergency Response Team concept
promoted by FEMA through Citizen Corps). The session was a stark
reminder just how far the local emergency management agenda has
strayed from the community’s priorities because of federal grant
requirements and the expectations of elected officials that we not
only seek such grants but use them whenever possible rather than
seeking additional support from general fund revenues.
As the senior civil servant in our emergency management agency, I
oversee the NET program but sit a couple of levels above the actual
program manager. As such, I have relatively little day-to-day contact
with our volunteers, who now number more than 1,000 organized into
roughly 30 teams spread across the city.

Each volunteer receives standard training consistent with the federal
CERT curriculum delivered by a cadre of full-time emergency responders
and seasoned volunteers. After that, each one is issued a fluorescent
vest, hard hat, and ID card and send on her way.
Over the 15 or so years the program has been running, teams have
largely been left to organize and administer themselves. Team leaders
receive little additional training and no formal mentoring. Anyone who
receives training is welcome to play or not play according to their
individual willingness to do so. No one is excluded from training due
to age, physical ability, prior criminal history, or other limitations
or associations. As such, our volunteer corps, although quite diverse,
is not necessarily representative of all segments of our community,
nor organized to instill confidence in those who do not participate.

From the outset, program managers and volunteers alike have assumed
that in the event of a serious emergency, such as a major earthquake,
the teams would deploy themselves without need of instructions or
assignments from a central command authority. Their training would
dictate the priorities and rules of engagement as situations
warranted: Assess damage, identify and isolate hazards, organize
bystanders and others, render assistance when able, communicate
conditions and resource requirements to the nearest fire station, and
follow the instructions of emergency responders when they arrive.
Until recently, the system managed to get along in spite of itself.
But recently, as the community responded to the H1N1 pandemic by
establishing community vaccination clinics, it became evident that
things were not working as well as some of us had assumed or perhaps
simply hoped.

For starters, people were reluctant to step forward. This sort of
mission was not what they had in mind when they signed up for
training. Others expressed concern that they would be exposed to the
disease and might become ill themselves or transmit the illness to
someone in their household who was otherwise vulnerable. And still
others found it difficult to accommodate the commitment in already
busy schedules crowded with other obligations.
All of these explanations seemed reasonable enough and were little
cause for concern. What we did not expect was a backlash from some
quarters that suggested we were taking advantage of our volunteers to
provide free labor for something that the government had not
adequately prepared for and which they considered could hardly be
called an emergency. Others complained that they were being asked to
come to the aid of others besides their neighbors since most clinics
were organized in poor communities with inadequate access to health
care and a high number of uninsured residents. And still others
questioned whether we knew what we were doing at all since no one had
prepared them for such responsibilities much less organized them to
respond to such situations beforehand.

The latter group of responses not only raised some eyebrows, but also,
when contrasted with the first group of responses, suggested a very
real gap had emerged between preparations and expectations. A lack of
consistent communication between the agency and its volunteers as well
as among the volunteers themselves had left people to make up their
own explanations for what they saw heppening in the community.
Recently, evidence of this problem took on new urgency as rifts among
volunteers and groups surfaced over even more mundane issues. Emails
began flying back and forth among team leaders questioning one
another’s motives and the city’s support for the program. In all of
these communications, one thing became clear: People felt they had
lost control of something valuable and wanted it back. Moreover, they
were willing, if the need arose, to fight for it. Others suggested the
fight had already begun, and were prepared to make that clear if
anyone was in doubt.

Now, there are far worse positons to find oneself in than this. People
who are passionate about something will sometimes express themselves
about it in ways that others find unpleasant, antagonistic, or at
least irritating. If you can get past that, though, something positive
can happen.
When we got together last night about 50 team leaders assembled to
tell us what was on their minds. Some had been building up a head of
steam for awhile, others wondered what hit them, and still others
simply ducked until the fur stopped flying. In the end, the sideshow
issues about ID cards, t-shirts, advanced training opportunities, and
other administrivia were pushed aside and people agreed that three
things were important above all else:

The program is about preparedness not volunteerism.
Our volunteers play a vital role in communicating with our
 community about risk, readiness, and resilience.

And we need to show our volunteers that we value them by
 communicating consistently about issues of importance.
It will take a lot more than saying these things to make them happen
though.

Our volunteers and staff both recognize that disaster survivors and
neighbors are the real first-responders. They know that investments in
preparedness pay big dividends when disaster strikes by minimizing
demands on emergency services and expediting the transition to
recovery. They understand implicitly that what we can do together
makes a bigger difference than what we do alone, and they actively
engage others in an ever expanding web of relationships that fosters
resilience.
But they are also torn by what they must do. Our small agency has 15
full-time staff, but only one works directly with these volunteers.
And even that position has responsibilities beyond training and
supporting the NET volunteers. Ensuring the effectiveness of this
program requires substantial investments in relationships with
agencies and community partners who support the training our
volunteers receive.

Volunteers too have competing demands on their time and attentions.
Some would become full-time volunteers if we asked them. Others only
want to get involved when the need is urgent. Most will do what they
can when they can, often with a smile. But none of them will do any of
this for long unless someone at least acknowledges what they are doing
and encourages them to keep it up.
We know our NET program works. We can tell anytime our volunteers get
together just by the passion they display and the skills they exhibit.
But this program still receives less support than almost any other
program we deliver. Aside from the funds allocated to developing the
training materials themselves and running a few exercises, the cost of
delivering the NET training and managing the teams receives no ongoing
grant support. Investments made with grant funds in other projects may
help leverage the support of our partners in the fire department and
other agencies by freeing their resources to support our needs, but
these scarce funds are drying up as the fiscal crisis persists.
Besides, their support does translate into assistance with the
day-to-day operation of the program.

So, what does this say about our priorities? I can only answer this
question by looking at the gap between our assumptions and our
expectations. Judging by that, we as a larger community of emergency
management and homeland security professionals and policy-makers have
assumed for far too long that volunteer means free. This can be taken
one or both of two ways: 1) free as in without cost and 2) without
responsibility or accountability. As it turns out, neither assumption
is correct.
The opportunity cost of ignoring volunteers in exchange for making
investments in hardware and software rears its ugly head sooner or
later. Eventually, disgruntled if not disorganized volunteers will, as
ours did Monday night, remind you that the liveware — the people and
relationships that make up a community — are assets to be invested in
not just protected or neglected.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   6 Comments »

April 20, 2010
Smarting from grant crack

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Christopher Bellavita on
April 20, 2010
Today’s post was written by Daniel W. O’Connor

———————
What is the value of education?

With respect to my valued friends in academia, in my perhaps ill
informed opinion, the standard education track(s) create a subject
matter myopia that blinds one to ancillary domains and data. You get
good at really deep introspection on one topic; but there is no
lateral pollination.
There are some amazingly brilliant people working in and on homeland
security issues. But does all this expertise create gaps in our
observed reality and therefore pushes us to focus on the wrong issues?

What kind of knowledge worker/leader do we want in Homeland Security?
Do we want experts or polymaths? Do we want specialists or
generalists? Is it an education issue or simply a leadership one?
Where does ideology come into play?
Recently two high profile positions in homeland security arenas in a
large state were in the news. One gentlemen was leaving and one coming
aboard. Highly educated, both these gentlemen talked about their
accomplishments and the challenges ahead.

Their concerns were practically identical and mirrored a focus on one
particular homeland security function: grants.
One said his primary concerns when he took his job were dealing with a
major reduction in the state’s largest homeland security grant and
getting more funding. The other gentleman said he was looking forward
to managing federal homeland security grants.

Here’s Statement Analysis 101: first thoughts are usually their most
pressing concerns.
Is this what Homeland Security has become? I mean is it all about the
money? Where’s the depth, the knowledge, and understanding of the
complexity and intricacy of homeland security?

I don’t see it.
Does the leadership these people represent either oversimplify their
mission or simply want someone else to pay for their experiments and
readiness?

Our security seems not hinge on behavior change or resilience, but on
money. How much money will it take?
Grants are much like insurance. Those who have it and can get it take
more risks than those who do not. The expectation that grants are the
panacea for risk mitigation is miserably false, dangerous, and leads
to elevated expectations.

How much money does it take to effectively secure a nation?
Does using the funds for more M4 rifles or computer terminals make us
safer? What about the training required? What about their application?
The requirement is never ending. Is this simply the homeland security
manifestation of the military industrial congressional complex?

In homeland security, why don’t we talk about our risk acceptance
index? What is our turbulence tolerance? Why don’t we talk about our
economy as a risk? Why don’t we talk about our current immigration
policy as a risk? What about our energy policy? What about our
personal debt, housing, and of course, our expectations?
How smart do you have to be to see the trance-like focus on grants is
wrong?

I see grants sort of like overtime pay. Some people become overly
accustomed to overtime and create an elevated and false pay scale.
Since overtime is not typically a budgeted item, paying it creates
organizational shortfalls. Shortfalls create deficits. Then costs have
to be trimmed. Since workers are the most expensive and easiest way to
reduce budgets, they get axed — creating the need for more overtime.
This is cyclical mania.
Grants are the crack of homeland security. If grants were reduced to
near zero, what would the safety/security landscape look like?

How smart to you have to be to see grants aren’t too effective in
meeting the expectations of the citizenry?
Perhaps a study is in order.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   4 Comments »

April 19, 2010
15 Years Later: Remembering Oklahoma City…

Filed under: Events — by Jessica Herrera-Flanigan on April 19, 2010
Today marks the 15th anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing. At 9:01
am on April 19, 1995, a 20-foot Ryder truck filled with approximately
5,000 pounds of explosives blew up outside the Alfred P. Murrah
Federal Building in Oklahoma City. One hundred and sixty eight people,
including several children, died. Almost 700 people were injured.
President Obama has signed a proclamation designating today as the
National Day of Service and Remembrance for Victims and Survivors of
Terrorism.

Sadly, in looking through this morning’s homeland security news and
summaries, there was scant mention of the attack or today’s
anniversary. Online, there were a few analysis, but it took some
searching to find, with the exception of CNN, which ran a front page
analysis and commentary on the attack. Over the weekend, some stories
picked up tidbits from an interview from former President Bill
Clinton, who noted that today’s political and cultural environment
mirrors that that existed in 1995 when Timothy McVeigh and Terry
Nichols carried out their attack.
What does this all mean? Have we forgotten Oklahoma City or have we,
nine years after 9/11, after Ford Hood, the Austin IRS plane crash,
and numerous-failed attempts and threats, become less sensitized to
attacks? At least some polls would say differently. A CBS News poll
found that “nearly 40 percent of Americans now believe domestic
terrorism is a bigger threat than international terrorism.”

The definition of domestic terrorism, as this blog has explored in the
past, remains one that is not easily defined. The line between
criminal act and terrorism, especially when dealing with lone wolf
types, is not easily defined.
That said, there are many lessons learned from the Oklahoma City
bombing that we cannot forget if we are to advance our nation’s
homeland security efforts.

The threat of domestic terrorism remains as real as international
 terrorism. The threat from domestic extremists - whether left,
 right, or center is real. The bombing fifteen years ago made that
 clear. The arrest several weeks ago of members of the Michigan
 supremacist Militia group “Hutaree,” which had planned to kill
 police officers and then attack again at their funerals, tell us
 that the threat remains.
Whether one agrees with Clinton on the parallels between now and 1995,
we know that there has been a dramatic growth of hate groups and
anti-government groups, brought on in part by the nation’s economic
turmoil and an outside-the-beltway frustration with Washington, D.C.
According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, the number of
paramilitary patriot groups increased from 42 to 127 between 2008 and
2009. The number of hate groups grew to 932 in 2009.

First Preventers and Responders are Critical. As much funding we
 put into our national and federal homeland security efforts,
 terrorism is local. The first individuals on the scene will be the
 fire fighters and EMTs who live in the community, who will be the
 hardest hit as the victims will likely be family or friends. The
 investigators who will likely gather the first pieces of evidence
 are likely to be the local cops on the beat. Preparing these
 individuals with the intelligence, communications tools,
 cooperation capabilities, and knowledge to combat terrorism -
 regardless of its origin - is critical.
Awareness is Still Key. While none of us should live in a state of
 panic or full of anxiety over potential attacks, we all must
 balance staying aware and being prepared with the daily things we
 do. It is a balance that is not easily found but one that is
 necessary.

About an hour ago, the Annual Remembrance Ceremony at the Oklahoma
City National Memorial began. The name of the 168 people who perished
that day will be read. Secretary Napolitano will offer remarks about
the state of the nation’s terrorism efforts. Hopefully all of us will
remember the lessons learned and honor the lives of those affected
that day.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   1 Comment »
April 19, 1995

Filed under: Terrorist Threats & Attacks — by Philip J. Palin on April
19, 2010
murrahcharles-porter

Purposeful abuse of the innocent by the proud calls us to humility and
justice.
The image is that of Oklahoma City firefighter Chris Fields cradling
Baylee Almon. On April 19, 1995 an attack on the Murrah Federal
Building killed 168, including Baylee.

The original photograph by Charles Porter won the 1996 Pulitzer Prize.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   1 Comment »
April 15, 2010

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Homeland Security TV
Filed under: General Homeland Security, Humor — by Jessica
Herrera-Flanigan on April 15, 2010

Every time a lawyer show comes on television, my husband likes to
remind that there are no shows that focus on engineers, his chosen
profession. He concedes that there are a number of shows on channels
like Discovery, History, and Science, but argues that those are not
the same as being featured as a wheeler and dealer or hero on prime
time. Phil Palin’s post yesterday, Farewell Jack. Welcome to Treme,
got me thinking about what my husband has said about engineer-hero
shows and whether, beyond 24 and Jack Bauer, any shows exist out there
that show the best and worst of homeland security.
The result: a list of the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Homeland
Security-inspired television. In compiling this list, I have left out
made-for-TV movies or mini-series. A few reality shows sneaked on the
list, but not in a good way. I did not limit the possible candidates
to contemporary programs or programs focused on counterterrorism,
choosing instead to include programs that date back more than 40 years
and focus on homeland security as broadly defined. I have also
included series that have significantly dealt with homeland security
issues but may not be solely focused on them.

The Good - 10 Shows That Matter
Fringe - A show that features “mad” scientist Walter Bishop, civilian
DHS consultant Peter Bishop, FBI agent Olivia Dunham, and DHS
Special-Agent-in Charge Phillip Broyles, and their investigations into
fringe science occurrences and an alternate universe. The show has
featured the pseudo-terrorist organization ZFT, aka Zerstörung durch
Fortschritte der Technologie (Destruction Through Technological
Progress), which has cells throughout the globe that trade science and
technology secrets. In the first episode, Broyles makes the
proclamation “Although this is a joint task force, you are all
reporting to the Department of Homeland Security.”

The Law And Order Franchise- The three NY-based shows making up the
franchise, Law & Order, Law & Order: Criminal Intent, and Law & Order:
Special Victims Unit, have all addressed terrorism and homeland
security in significant ways. Law & Order features Detective Cyrus
Lupo, who previously worked in the intelligence division of the NYPD.
In addition, it routinely addresses terrorism, privacy, and issues
relating to Muslim civil rights. In one episode, it even attempted to
put on trial a lawyer/scholar who had written memos while employed at
the Justice Department that were used to justify torture in the Middle
East. Special Victims had a series of episodes in Season 8 revolving
around Detective Olivia Benson and ecoterrorists and several of its
episodes have featured Immigration & Customs Enforcement, though
usually in a manner that is interfering with the NYPD’s
investigations. In its latest episodes, Criminal Intent focused on
piracy, Somalia, and attempts to arm possible terrorist cells in
Africa.
Lie to Me - Featuring the Lightman Group, the program focuses on a
consulting firm that uses microexpressions and body language to
determine whether people are telling the truth. Granted, the series is
more of a police drama, but it makes the list because it features Ria
Torres, who honed her skills at perceiving deception while working as
a TSA agent. Her natural ability to tell the good from the bad
travelers led to her being recruited to join the mostly high-brow
intellectual types at the firm.

Third Watch - Running from 1999 to 2005, the show featured first
responders and preventers in New York City who worked the “third
watch” shift (3pm-11pm). Unlike many programs that featured only one
type of first responder, the program had the triumvirate - police,
EMTs, and firefighters. The show received wide acclaim for its
programming portraying the 9/11 attacks and how it affected the NY
first responder/preventer community.
The Agency - Airing from 2001-2003, the program featured real footage
of the CIA and focused on the agency’s mission in modern times.
Terrorism, Anthrax, Assassinations, Leaked Classified Information,
Congressional Inquiries - the show featured many of the same issues
that Washington D.C. has tackled post-9/11.

Rescue Me - A series on the FX network, Rescue Me focuses on the
Ladder 62/Engine 99 firehouse in New York City. In its early days, the
show dealt with the emotional effects of the 9/11 attacks on the
firefighters at the firehouse. The show is scheduled to end next year,
around the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
Emergency! - Reaching back into the archives, I would be remiss to not
include Emergency!, the first program (that I know of it) to feature
paramedics and their work. Airing from 1972 to 1977, the show featured
firefighters and hospital emergency room staff in Los Angeles. The
show featured its first responders doing their thing with a number of
real-world disasters, including the 1971 Sylmar earthquake and the
1973 Palos Verdes fire.

Mission: Impossible - Before there was Jack Bauer, there was Jim
Phelps and the Impossible Mission Forces. While very Cold
War-influenced, the show features secret agents taking covert
assignments against global bad guys, including corrupt dictators and
evil organizations.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. - Another early spy program, The Man from
U.N.C.L.E. looked to the remnants of the Nazi empire for its bad guy.
U.N.C.L.E. (the United Network Command for Law and Enforcement) is a
global international law-enforcement agency (Interpol, anyone?)
fighting against THRUSH (the Technological Hierarchy for the Removal
of Undesirables and the Subjugation of Humanity) and its efforts to
take over the world. The series makes the list as it is a favorite of
the government. Allegedly, the show has a spot at the Ronald Reagan
Presidential Library and the CIA’s museum.

Tiger Team - This short-lived (2 episode) series from TruTV (better
known as Court TV) probably is better classified as a mini-series or
special but there has been constant chatter about its possible
re-birth so I decided to include it on my list. The show followed a
team that is hired to test the IT security of various organizations.
The ethical hackers demonstrated weaknesses in security using social
engineering, hard core hacking, and breaking into buildings
physically. The show allowed geeks around the world to be proud of
their own kind.
The Bad - 3 Shows That We Could Have Done Without

Homeland Security USA - Only 13 episodes of this reality tv show
featuring DHS employees doing their job to protect the nation aired.
The show featured real employees from CBP, ICE, TSA, and the Coast
Guard and was shot in coordination with DHS. Low ratings and claims
that the show was no more than propaganda led to its demise. A good
premise - highlighting those on the front line - but bad execution.
G.I. Joe: A Real American Hero - Some may be surprised that I’ve put
one of American’s favorite children icons on the list of bad tv. G.I.
Joe is as American as apple pie and how could anyone be against an
animated series that began each episode with:

G.I. Joe is the code name for America’s daring, highly-trained,
Special Mission force. Its purpose: To defend human freedom against
Cobra, a ruthless terrorist organization determined to rule the world.
Like almost every kid out there, I played with my share of G.I. Joe
action figures, borrowing them from my brother’s collection. That said,
a television show designed mostly if not solely to peddle children’s
toys rightly deserves a spot on the bad list.

A Man Called Sloane- Since the “good” list featured some classics, I
had to dig back to find a show from earlier eras that could made the
not-so-good list. A Man Called Sloane, which aired in 1979-80 and was
canceled after a few episodes seemed to fit in well with this
category. The show attempted to be a combination of every spy show
that preceded it and featured Thomas R. Sloane III, a spy who kind of
worked for UNIT, a secret American intelligence operation run by
someone called the Director. As with all spy shows, the UNIT had an
evil counterpart - the KARTEL. The show just never took off, though a
made-for-tv movie called Death Ray 2000, featuring the never-aired
pilot of the show did make it on the air a year or two later.
The Ugly - Who Could Have Possibly Thought This Was A Good Idea?

Gana la Verde or Win the Green - The winner of the ugly homeland
security-inspired program award goes hands down to this program. A
reality show that aired on Spanish television stations in the
Southwest in 2004-2005, Gana featured immigrants competing in “Fear
Factor” inspired contests in the hopes of gaining immigration advice.
At one point, the show suggested that the winner would receive a green
card, a claim that led ICE to point out that the program is not
sanctioned by or connected to the agency. Among the challenges given
to contestants - eating cockroaches and worms, being attacked by dogs,
cleaning the windows of a high-rise building, and running in between
semi-trucks. The show was largely criticized by immigration groups,
who argued that the program was humiliating and gave false hopes of
citizenship to contestants.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   9 Comments »
Farewell Jack. Welcome to Treme.

Filed under: Preparedness and Response, State and Local HLS, Strategy
— by Philip J. Palin on April 15, 2010
Fox has canceled 24, its counter-terrorism drama. The show debuted in
November 2001 featuring Jack Bauer as a fearless, selfless, and
sometimes reckless undercover catcher and killer of bad guys. The
final episode will run in May. A movie is under development.

On Sunday, April 11, HBO introduced Treme, a post-Katrina New Orleans
neighborhood. The ensemble cast includes, “an eclectic group of locals
— among them a trombone player, a chef, a civil rights lawyer, a disc
jockey and a displaced Mardi Gras chief — as they struggle to repair
their lives after the storm.” (New York Times)
Sic transit homeland security?

The Emmy and Golden Globe Award-winning 24 features a covert Counter
Terrorism Unit. But there is really only one hero. “When Kiefer
Sutherland’s 24 superagent barks “Dammit, Chloe–we’re running out of
time!” America’s ass is about to be saved in some new, heart-stopping
way.” (Entertainment Weekly) Assassins, kidnappers, suicide bombers,
bio-terrorists, nuclear weapons, sundry colleagues, adversaries, and
victims co-star.
Treme is not saved, but neither does it succumb. The levee breaks are
called a “federally induced catastrophe.” MTV’s Ben Collins tells us
Treme is about “death, resilience, and broken hearts.”

“Treme uses sound and imagery to suggest that even the worst damage
and disruption can’t extinguish the joie de vivre, and that is found
in the pearly gleam of fresh oysters, the high notes of Antoine’s
trombone, the crunch of barbecue, a glistening bottle of French wine,
the feathers on a Mardi Gras costume and, most simply, laughter.” (New
York Times)
Last Friday I told residents of a dense urban neighborhood they should
not depend on much official guidance or help in the first 72 minutes
of a local emergency or 72 hours of a wide-spread emergency. About
one-third were astonished. Others were pretty sanguine.

Those who were astonished insisted someone must be “in charge.” Surely
there’s a courageous and capable Jack Bauer nearby.
The majority did not expect a hero to save them. But they quickly
recognized their own lack of readiness. “Not knowing each other is our
greatest vulnerability,” one participant offered. “No offence, but I
don’t know if in an emergency I would trust information from anyone in
this room,” another said.

In Treme the neighbors come together around a shared love affair with
music. In too many American cities (and towns, villages, and more)
neighbors do not come together at all. They share a place and that is
about all they share.
The good news is that the neighbors-in-name-only whom I met last week
seemed to enjoy being together and agreed there was good cause to meet
again. The risk of disaster gave them a good excuse to do so. I had
the sense they would have welcomed almost any excuse.

We need our Jack Bauers. He is a flawed, but well-intentioned
guard-dog. Even more we need herds that are less like sheep, more like
American Bison. Or even better: neighborhoods of full-fledged
neighbors who know each other and – despite all our eccentric
differences – care for each other. This is the foundation of
resilience… and, probably, the Republic.
Further Reading:

A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities that Arise in
Disaster by Rebecca Solnit
In the Neighborhood: The Search for Community on an American Street by
Peter Lovenheim

Governing the Commons by Elinor Ostrom
The Idea of Fraternity in America by Wilson Carey McWilliams

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   6 Comments »

April 14, 2010
Preparedness: The Missing Link

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Mark Chubb on April 14,
2010
Last week Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano announced the
appointment of 35 individuals to a newly formed task force on
preparedness. The panel was appointed pursuant to provisions of the
2010 DHS Appropriations Act, which called for its creation to make,
“recommendations for all levels of government regarding: disaster and
emergency guidance and policy; federal grants; and federal
requirements.” The announcement indicated that the task force would
conduct its business with an “emphasis on identifying preparedness
policies, guidelines and grant programs that should be updated and
recommending paths forward to improve the nation’s collective
capabilities for preparing for disasters.”

After reviewing the list of appointees and their affiliations, all I
can say is hold onto your wallets folks.
If anything has distinguished the allocation of grant funds for
homeland security and emergency preparedness more than the ad hoc
nature of the enterprise as a whole, it has been the tendency of grant
recipients to spend vast sums on seldom-used, specialized hardware and
highly-paid consultants with very little evidence of progress building
capacity or engaging communities in collaborative efforts to improve
resilience.

Four separate Government Accountability Office reports issued since
December 2008 highlight just a few of the issues to which the task
force should devote some of its attention:
Fire Grants: FEMA Has Met Most Requirements for Awarding Fire Grants,
but Additional Actions Would Improve Its Grant Process, GAO-10-64,
Cotober 30, 2009.

Urban Area Security Initiative: FEMA Lacks Measures to Assess How
Regional Collaboration Efforts Build Preparedness Capabilities,
GAO-09-651, July 2, 2009.
Transit Security Grants: DHS Allocates Grants Based on Risk, but Its
Risk Methodology, Management Controls, and Grant Oversight Can Be
Strengthened, GAO-09-491, June 8, 2009.

Homeland Security Grant Program Risk-Based Distribution Methods:
Presentation to Congressional Committees - November 14, 2008 and
December 15, 2008, GAO-09-168R, December 23, 2008.
These are only the most recent but certainly not the only GAO reports
that offer a critical perspective on DHS grant-making activities.
Others focus on the evolving understanding of the role of risk
assessment and risk management principles in prioritizing these
programs.

The individuals appointed to the task force reflect a diverse
cross-section of public officials from state, county, local, and
tribal governments across the United States. I am familiar with many
of those appointed, and can say with certainty that they seem
well-qualified.
Nevertheless, a couple of things stand out upon scrutinizing the list
further, which trouble me more than a little. First, officials with
affiliations to the fire-rescue and law enforcement communities seem
particularly well-represented, perhaps too much so. Second, rust-belt
states and communities in the Midwest and Great Plains are
under-represented. And, third, the private, community, and voluntary
sectors, upon which any successful response and recovery operation
ultimately depends, are essentially unrepresented.

If, as it seems, questions persist concerning what sort of bang we are
managing to get for the many bucks spent since 2001 on preparedness,
one might reasonably consider it worthwhile to appoint someone other
than representatives of recipients to investigate what all this money
has bought us. Instead, if the secretary really intents to implement
the task force recommendations rather than simply going through the
exercise for purely political purposes, she would do well to share the
terms of reference they will operate under so we can be sure the kids
have not just been put in charge of the candy store.
It has been my experience that no fire service or law enforcement
chief executive will ever tell you his or her budget is adequate.
Everyone wants more. And with few exceptions, everyone will happily
accept someone else’s money if they can get it.

When I served as the executive director of the Southeastern
Association of Fire Chiefs in the early 1990s, the association and its
regional peers were actively advocating for federal grants that would
eventually take the form of the Assistant to Firefighters Grant (AFG)
program and the SAFER grants. Their argument went something like this,
“Our cities and their citizens are strapped for cash. We are finding
it harder to deliver service while competing with other programs that
must fulfill federal mandates. At the same time, we are falling under
new and increasing pressures from regulators to provide personnel
protective equipment and training. Besides, law enforcement receives
about $11 billion a year in federal assistance, and we get none.” This
argument when examined closely amounted to little more than, “They got
theirs, we want ours.”
Law enforcement has since the 1970s (at least) received federal
assistance to foster interstate cooperation. The logic seems sound
enough, criminals do not respect state and local boundaries even
though cops must. If we want to help cops cope with wandering
criminals, we need to help them cooperate across these imaginary lines
at least as well as the criminals tend to do. Most of these
investments recognize the importance of collecting, analyzing and
sharing information about criminals and crime-fighting strategies.

Fire, unlike crime, does not tend to wander across jurisdictional
boundaries, and even when it does, it tends not to travel very far.
(When fire does cross such lines and travel far and fast, it tends to
be on federal lands or under federal jurisdiction for other reasons
already.) Until 9/11 firefighters had no sound interstate nexus
argument to bolster their claims for federal support. Indeed, even the
argument that national standards were impacting their cost of doing
business failed under close scrutiny. The standards to which they
referred (especially those applicable to staffing and response times)
were often applicable only when adopted by individual states or
localities, and were often drafted by the firefighters’ unions and
their bosses through so-called consensus standards bodies in an effort
to circumvent the local democratic process. In other words, before we
needed to equip firefighters to help protect us from terrorists, we
really did not have much of an argument to spend federal dollars on
their needs.
As we like to say in homeland security circles, 9/11 changed
everything. With the threat of attack by foreign extremists on
American soil a proven fact, no community could be expected to
shoulder the burden alone. Protecting everyone meant protecting
anyone. For local communities, who had largely shouldered the
preparedness burden alone, this was a windfall. And nobody benefited
more from it than those who were already best organized: cops and
firefighters.

But disasters, like terrorists, rarely target firefighters and cops,
at least not to the exclusion of everyone else. Rather, they tend to
operate indiscriminately or with the intention of causing the greatest
damage and disruption possible to the community as a whole or at least
something very important to it.
This suggests that any effort to assess the state of our preparedness
should probably ask not what we have managed to achieve already, but
rather what readiness would look like if we actually achieved it. I
use the term readiness, rather than preparedness, advisedly. The
concept of readiness raises, at least for me, questions about the
condition of my resources and what I can do with them, rather than
focusing primarily on their availability, which has regretfully become
the all-t00-common custom when assessing preparedness in this country.

Any assessment of readiness should begin by asking not simply what
fiscal resources and policies are in place, how they are performing,
and how we might improve their allocation to satisfy the common good,
but should also question how our communities’ stocks of human, social,
natural, and political capital informs those decisions. I find it hard
to believe we can have that sort of conversation with the people the
secretary has assembled around the table to advise her on this issue.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   6 Comments »
April 13, 2010

Homeland security futures worth creating
Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Christopher Bellavita on
April 13, 2010

On Wednesday, while world leaders meet for the last day of the Global
Nuclear Security Summit, there will be another meeting.
For this meeting,“…participants from a wide cross-section of the
emergency management community, select subject matter experts in
relevant academic areas, select federal agencies, and other key
stakeholders … will begin to identify, define, and refine key issues
and drivers that may impact the future of emergency management over
the next 15-20 years.”

One meeting aims to “develop a plan of action to secure loose nuclear
materials, prevent nuclear material smuggling, and deter, detect and
disrupt attempts at nuclear terrorism.”
The other gathering wants to explore “issues, trends, and other
factors that could impact the future emergency management environment,
and to support expanded strategic thinking and planning for the
future.”

One meeting deals with today’s threats. The other meeting seeks to
create a better understanding of homeland security’s future context.
—————————-

A central justification for speculating about homeland security
futures is to “make strategic decisions today that will be sound for
all plausible futures.” That’s the view of Peter Schwartz, one of the
country’s best-known futurists.
There is a contrary perspective that argues the homeland security
policy space is too undefined, too broad, too complex to allow any
intentional journey into the future. From this perspective, thinking
strategically about the future of homeland security is similar to what
George Bernard Shaw said about chess: a foolish expedient for making
idle people believe they are doing something very clever.

Abraham Lincoln was clever. He is quoted as believing “The best way to
predict the future is to create it.”
Neat bumper sticker, but what does that have to do with anything real?

—————————-
What is a homeland security future worth creating (to paraphrase
Thomas P. Barnett)?

During homeland security’s early days, the people doing the work used
to describe the challenge of creating organizations, policies, and
programs, as “building an airplane while we’re flying it.”
The multibillion-dollar aircraft is now airborne.

Maybe now is an appropriate time to think deliberately and
systematically about the kind of world that plane is flying toward.
That’s what the people in FEMA’s long-range planning initiatives are
starting to do.

Here is the context for Wednesday’s strategic foresight meeting:
Overview

The world around us is changing in ways that may have profound effects
on the emergency management enterprise. Collectively, we must begin to
think more broadly and over a longer-timeframe if we are to understand
these changes and their potential impacts. To this end, FEMA has
launched a Strategic Foresight initiative, the objective of which is
straight-forward: to seek to understand how the world around us is
changing, and how those changes may affect the future of emergency
management and our community.
Our approach is rooted in an explicit attempt to innovate and move
beyond the constraints of existing planning efforts. FEMA recognizes
that it is only a single member of the national emergency management
enterprise. Alongside other federal partners, states, nongovernmental
organizations, community based organizations, and especially
neighborhoods, towns and cities that do most of the work, the scale
and coverage of the emergency management community comprises a broad
and complex network of interdependencies and overlapping vital
interests.

Our goal is to engage this diverse community in a collective
exploration of issues, trends, and other factors that could impact the
future emergency management environment, and to support expanded
strategic thinking and planning for the future. We intend to further
this goal by participating actively, sharing our own questions,
directions, concerns, and decisions, and helping bring together people
from various disciplines to engage in the discussion.
The Big Questions

Three guiding questions to consider are:
(1) What are the drivers of change (e.g., demographics, climate
change) that may “dial up” or “dial down” systemic risk in the future?

(2) What has the potential to transform emergency management in the
future?
(3) What should we do now to better align our missions and
capabilities to our future needs?

Engagement
In the coming weeks FEMA will take steps to create space for
collaboration and dialog on these issues across the emergency
management community. We will facilitate engagement through various
media, including workshops, online collaboration tools, individual
meetings and conferences. More specifically, the first phase of key
events will include three primary engagement opportunities:

· APRIL 14, 2010: Scoping Workshop
This workshop will include participants from a wide cross-section of
the emergency management community, select subject matter experts in
relevant academic areas, select federal agencies, and other key
stakeholders. At this event participants will begin to identify,
define, and refine key issues and drivers that may impact the future
of emergency management.
· MAY 2010-JULY 2010: Online Collaboration
Diverse participants from many disciplines and fields will join in
moderated discussion through easy-to-access, easy-to-use online
communities. Dialog will focus on better understanding emerging trends
and future directions in key issue areas, and the potential
implications for emergency management.

· AUGUST 2010: Future Strategic Needs Workshop
This workshop will synthesize the results of the online collaboration,
leverage expert contributions in each area, and consider key issues
and drivers in combination, examining their implications. The result
of this workshop will be an emergent picture of future strategic needs
for the field of emergency management.
( You can find out more details by contacting the FEMA Office of
Policy and Program Analysis.)

—————————-
I am agnostic about the utility of spending too much time looking into
the future, particularly in the surprise ridden warren of homeland
security.

The planner in me hopes there are trends that can be identified and
incorporated into strategic design and implementation.
The realist part of me considers underwear bombers, predictable
hurricanes that were ignored, and fanatics awash with unreason and
recalls the Yiddish proverb: Man plans; God laughs.

Peter Schwartz tells the following story in his book Inevitable
Surprises:
Pierre Wack used to compare his futures work to the prediction
of floods on the Ganges River in India. “From source to mouth,” he
would say, “the Ganges is an extraordinary river, some 1500 miles
long. If you notice extraordinarily heavy monsoon rains at the
upper part of the basin, you can anticipate with certainty that
within two days something extraordinary is going to happen at
Rishikesh, at the foot of the Himalayas.” Three days later, he
would add, one could expect a flood at Allahabad, which is
southeast of Delhi; five days after that, one could expect a flood
in Benares, at the river’s Delta. “Now, the people down here in
Benares don’t know that this flood is on its way,” he would
conclude, “but I do. Because I’ve been at this spring where it
comes from. I’ve seen it! This is not fortune telling. This is not
crystal ball gazing. This is merely describing future implications
of something that has already happened.”

The people putting Wednesday’s meeting together have looked at
analyses that purport to see the spring “at the upper part of the
basin.” Those documents share a common view of “what has already
happened: ” 10 trends and drivers shaping the future of emergency
management and homeland security.
1. U.S. Economic Strength

2. Climate Change
3. Rapid Technological Change

4. Demographics
5. Terrorism and Transnational Crime

6. Proliferation of WMD
7. Natural Resource Scarcity and Competition

8. Pandemic
9. Weak/Failed States and Ungoverned Spaces

10. Rise of New Powers/Weakening of U.S.
I hope to write more about these in future posts.

—————————-
More than three dozen world leaders are talking about the possibility
of reducing nuclear weapons. That seems very idealistic.

But I believe even the realist Lincoln would approve.
I think he would also support FEMA’s idealistic effort to help shape —
if not create – the future of homeland security.

————
Clarification (4.13.10 @11:22 PST) — The person who provided me with
the list of drivers suggests the following clarification: “The 10
trends and drivers you mention at the end of the post … are not
emergency management/homeland security specific. They were common
themes … found when reviewing futures literature from a variety of
sources that mostly had a global/international flavor to them. The
goal of the workshop tomorrow is to begin the process of identifying
and defining what those drivers are for emergency management.”

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   9 Comments »

April 12, 2010
Threat of Nuclear Terrorism

Filed under: Radiological & Nuclear Threats — by Jessica
Herrera-Flanigan on April 12, 2010
Downtown Washington D.C. braced this morning for traffic and business
disruptions resulting from this week’s Nuclear Security Summit, where
leaders of 47 nations are gathering to discuss how to keep nukes away
from terrorists.

The meeting comes less than a week after the United States and Russia,
which currently hold 95% of existing nukes, signed a treaty that would
reduce the two nations’ stockpile of weapons significantly. The treaty
would reduce the number of nuclear weapons each country would have to
a maximum of 3100 (1,550 each) by 2017. 
 This number doesn’t include exceptions- including the
tactical/battlefield nukes, “reserve” weapons, and those waiting for
dismantling, which account for approximately 12,000 more warheads.
That said, the number is significantly lower than the 60,000 nuclear
weapons that were floating around during the height of the Cold War.

The treaty, which gained a significant amount of attention last week,
left untouched a more frightening issue that is the subject of this
week’s summit- what to do about terrorists and rogue actors who might
be intent on gaining access to and using nuclear weapons. The summit
will specifically focus on two areas of concern:
How to secure nuclear materials (i.e. the “loose nukes” problem)

How to prevent nuclear smuggling
Both of these threats potentially can allow terrorists to gain access
to separated plutonium and highly enriched uranium, both of which are
critical to nuclear bombmaking. Unfortunately, achieving success
against these threats is easier said than done, especially since each
country had different regimes for handling the materials and, in many
cases, the materials reside with private individuals instead of
government agencies.

In some instances, the materials and the scientific skills to use them
are for sale on various black markets, awaiting the highest bidder.
According to a recent Christian Science Monitor report, between 1993
and 2008, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) clocked 336
confirmed reports of criminal activity involving nuclear material,
including 421 incidents of stolen or lost nuclear material.
 Lost materials have been a significant concern since the Soviet
Union’s collapse in 1991, a situation that only worsened after
economic turmoil hit the nation. Much of the Soviet’s stockpile was
stored in the former Soviet republics of Ukraine, Belarus, and
Kazakhstan, where large amounts of uranium and plutonium may still
exist. The U.S. made earlier strides to secure those materials through
the Nunn-Lugar program, but much remains to be done.

The Summit this week could be important in addressing the non-state
actor threat and for setting the stage for the 2010 Review Conference
of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons (NPT), scheduled for May 3-28, 2010 at the United Nations
headquarters in New York. That review will address a number of key
issues including:
universality of the Treaty;

nuclear disarmament, including specific practical measures;
nuclear non-proliferation, including the promoting and
 strengthening of safeguards;

measures to advance the peaceful use of nuclear energy, safety and
 security;
regional disarmament and non-proliferation;

implementation of the 1995 resolution on the Middle East;
measures to address withdrawal from the Treaty;

measures to further strengthen the review process; and
ways to promote engagement with civil society in strengthening NPT
 norms and in promoting disarmament education.

As for the summit this week, success can be found if the participating
nations reaffirm their commitment to secure nuclear materials within
their jurisdiction and agree to help other nations who cannot afford
or do not have the capability to secure their materials. It would also
be useful to come away with an agreement to take strong legal stances
against smugglers and rogue nuclear scientists willing to sell their
bombmaking expertise to the highest bidders. Also, a commitment to
develop uniform security standards for non-weaponized nuclear
materials, including medical and energy uses, to assure that those
materials cannot be used for wrongdoing, would be a big success.
Of course, even if 47 nations agree this week to do all of the above
there are nations not at the table whose efforts will be critical to
any attempts to achieve global nuclear security. Neither Iran and
North Korea were invited to the conference, as they have violated the
nuclear non-proliferation treaty. In any event, Iran has already said
that it will not be bound by any agreements made this week. Among the
meetings scheduled for this week, is a bilateral meeting between
President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao, where President Obama
is expected to press his counterpart to support the United Nations
Security Council’s efforts to impose tougher sanctions on Iran.

Also worth noting is that Israel is not participating in the Summit.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu withdrew last week as he
believed that a number of nations - including Turkey and Egypt -
planned to raises questions about Israel’s nuclear arsenal and its
refusal to sign the NPT.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   1 Comment »
April 8, 2010

First reports about a 20-something, nicotine-addicted, sandal-wearing,
low-level diplomat are usually wrong
Filed under: Aviation Security, Border Security, General Homeland
Security — by Christopher Bellavita on April 8, 2010

I was going to write about the future of homeland security today. But
the present got in the way.
—————————–

The story is still unfolding. But as I write this late on April 7th,
here is the timeline of what the social network and other media
were/are reporting.
Between 6 and 7 PM, Pacific Time

A passenger attempted to light an explosive device on board an
 aircraft from Washington to Denver, sources tell NBC News
Update: Air marshals subdued passenger on Denver-bound 757 jet.
 Plane is parked in remote area of airport - NBC News

Update: Passenger detained after ’shoe bomb’ incident aboard
 Denver-bound plane is identified as Qatari diplomat - ABC News
Between 7 and 8 PM, Pacific Time

Update: Unclear if passenger tied to shoe incident aboard
 Denver-bound flight had explosives – NBC News
Between 8 and 9 PM, Pacific Time

Update: Qatar diplomat subdued on United flight may have been
 smoking in bathroom - NBC News
Between 9 and 10 PM, Pacific Time

From the Denver Post, reported by Felisa Cardona and Jeffrey Leib :
A United Airlines flight from Washington was escorted by fighter jets
to Denver International Airport after a diplomat on board from Qatar
may have tried to light his shoes on fire….

More than two hours after the incident, it still wasn’t clear whether
the incident was an actual threat or a misunderstanding because
al-Modadi attempted to smoke a cigarette on the plane, according to
numerous law enforcement sources….
ABC News and other outlets reported that no explosives have been found
on the plane, which was still being searched at 9:45 p.m…

Approximately 25 minutes outside of Denver the air marshal, who was
not immediately identified, confronted al-Modadi after smelling smoke.
From NBC –

…Federal officials told NBC News that a half hour before the jet
landed, a flight attendant smelled smoke just as a passenger was
coming out of a restroom and alerted an air marshal. The marshal
confronted the man, and there were initial reports that the man said
he was trying to light his shoe.
But NBC News reported that the man said he was putting out a
cigarette, which he smoked in the restroom, on the sole of his shoe.

No explosives were found on the man, and a search of the plane with
bomb-detecting dogs also turned up no explosives. And a federal
official said the man was wearing sandals….
From the AP (by writers Eileen Sullivan, Matthew Lee, Matt Apuzzo,
Joan Lowy, Pauline Jelinek and Lolita C. Baldor in Washington and
Judith Kohler and David Zalubowski in Denver)

A Qatari diplomat trying to sneak a smoke in an airplane bathroom
sparked a bomb scare Wednesday night on a flight from Washington to
Denver, with fighter jets scrambled and law enforcement put on high
alert, officials said.
No explosives were found on the man, and officials do not believe he
was trying to harm anyone, according to a senior law enforcement
officials who spoke on condition of anonymity…

An Arab diplomat briefed on the matter identified the diplomat as
Mohammed Al-Madadi.
Two law enforcement officials said investigators were told the man was
asked about the smell of smoke in the bathroom and he made a joke that
he had been trying to light his shoes — an apparent reference to the
2001 so-called ‘’shoe bomber” Richard Reid…

A senior State Department official said the agency was aware of the
tentative identification of the man as a Qatari diplomat and that
there would be ”consequences, diplomatic and otherwise” if he had
committed a crime.
The latest edition of department’s Diplomatic List, a registry of
foreign diplomats working in the United States, identifies a man named
Mohammed Yaaqob Y.M. Al-Madadi as the third secretary for the Qatari
Embassy in Washington. Third secretary is a relatively low-ranking
position at any diplomatic post and it was not immediately clear what
his responsibilities would have been.

Foreign diplomats in the United States, like American diplomats posted
abroad, have broad immunity from prosecution. The official said if the
man’s identity as a Qatari diplomat was confirmed and if it was found
that he may have committed a crime, U.S. authorities would have to
decide whether to ask Qatar to waive his diplomatic immunity so he
could be charged and tried. Qatar could decline, the official said,
and the man would likely be expelled from the United States.
Qatar, about the size of Connecticut and Rhode Island combined, is an
oil- and gas-rich monarchy and close U.S. ally of about 1.4 million
people on the Arabian peninsula, surrounded by three sides by the
Persian Gulf and to the south by Saudi Arabia…..

From the innocuously uninformative TSA site
TSA Statement on United Flight 663
News & Happenings

On Wednesday, April 7 TSA responded to an incident on board United
Airlines flight 663 from DCA to DEN after Federal Air Marshals
responded to a passenger causing a disturbance on board the aircraft.
The flight landed safely at Denver International Airport at
approximately 8:50 p.m. EDT.
Law enforcement and TSA responded to the scene and the passenger is
currently being interviewed by law enforcement. All steps are being
taken to ensure the safety of the traveling public.

—————————–
By the time I wake up tomorrow, I’m guessing there will be a clearer
picture of this currently bizarre incident.

Based on the evolving first reports, I go to sleep tonight thinking a
20-something, nicotine-addicted, sandal-wearing, low-level diplomat
was smoking a cigarette in an airplane toilet-sink room. He put out
the smoke by grinding it into his shoe. A flight attendant smelled
smoke and notified a federal air marshal. At that point, Mohammed
Al-Madadi — if that is really his name — stopped enjoying what in the
1980s used to be called “the friendly skies.”
Airplane, shoes, smoke, Al-Madadi… the first reports write themselves.

—————————–
What ripples — if any — will this event stir in homeland security?

Do passengers with diplomatic immunity create another vulnerability in
the US aviation security system?
Will cigarettes now have to go into checked baggage?

Is health care reform to blame?
Is this yet one more example of how America is turning socialist?

What will the story line be that places blame for this event on
Secretary Napolitano?
—————————–

I wanted to write about the future of homeland security. But the
present is way too weird to be thinking about the future.
Maybe tomorrow.

—————————–
Update: 20 seconds after I posted the above:

BreakingNews
“Qatari diplomat who sparked bomb scare by trying to smoke aboard
Denver-bound jet won’t face criminal charges, official tells AP”

Oh well, who knows whether that’s true or not. First reports are
almost always wrong.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   8 Comments »
April 7, 2010

The New Game in Town
Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Mark Chubb on April 7,
2010

Game theory has long informed U.S. nuclear strategy and the strategies
of many of our nuclear-armed adversaries. Armed deterrence and the
theory of mutual assured destruction relies upon a fundamental
assumption that any adversary amoral enough to use such fearsome
weapons nevertheless remains sufficiently rational not to wish the
suffering of retaliation upon itself and its people by launching a
pre-emptive strike.
The Nuclear Posture Review released this week and the agreement to
enter into a new nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia reflect the
realization that the rules of the nuclear arms game have changed, not
just for the U.S. but for all nuclear-armed nations. The real
potential of nuclear weapons to influence strategy and policy today
rests not upon the awesome power they pose for adversaries to
annihilate one another, but the more practical moral and political
consequences of possessing them in the first place. These consequences
include both the rewards of deterrence and the risks associated with
the possibility nuclear weapons technology will fall into the wrong
hands.

The more terrifying threat facing nuclear armed nations today is not
the menace their weapons pose to one another, but the risk their
nuclear programs pose if the technology or know-how they possess comes
under the control of unscrupulous or unchecked states or worse,
non-state actors. Unlike the Cold War anxieties that led to the arms
race and proxy fights that nearly bankrupted both sides, the new game
revolves around a different and much more complex set of assumptions.
Game theory relies upon the possibility of predictability not just
plausibility. Imagining a threat is not enough. How do we predict the
appropriate posture for an adversary that behaves in ways that do not
respond to conventional incentives or conform to our expectations of
rationality? How should the assumption that this adversary subscribes
to an inflexible moral code that dismisses recognized notions of right
and wrong influence our decisions and actions?

By the time the destructive potential of the U.S. and Russian nuclear
arsenals exceeded the level each side needed to achieve mutually
assured destruction, the symbolic power of these weapon systems began
to rival the real power of their substance. Today, the substantive
threat posed by nuclear proliferation rests upon the symbolic value of
acquiring the same toys the big boys play with not achieving the same
results.
Nuclear strategy and deterrence are no longer questions of who can
deliver the most firepower more accurately or with the shortest time
to target. Today, we must consider the consequences of small strikes
against unsecured targets that inflict limited rather than
catastrophic casualties against innocent civilians or noncombatants.
The costs of this new arms race are neither defined by the scale nor
scope of the consequences or the comparative costs of developing the
capabilities to counter an attack, but rather by the investments
expected or demanded to prevent it from happening in the first place.
This thinking represents the ultimate in asymmetric warfare because it
reflects a different calculus driven by the value and purpose we see
in human life.

The danger posed by the new generation of nuclear wannabes does not
represent the sort of existential threat that served as the basis for
our previous policies. Today we face an ontological threat that
redefines our relationships not only with the technology and those who
possess it, but also with the way we organize and think about the
capabilities and threats these weapons present.
We may no longer fear the prospect that we will destroy one another or
end all life on earth through a nuclear exchange. But we just might
achieve the same end more slowly by making decisions and taking
actions that produce misguided or misplaced investments in security as
opposed to more productive and farsighted investments in human
development.

The Nuclear Posture Review is a step in the direction of a more
enlightened and responsible strategy, albeit a very small one. It
recognizes that the only surefire way to keep nuclear technology and
know how from falling into the wrong hands is to eventually get rid of
them altogether.
At the same time, it recognizes that we cannot un-ring the nuclear
bell or put the atomic genie back inside the bottle. Only by choosing
a new game can we change the rules that really matter, the ones that
lead us to make positive rather than negative investments in human
security.

This new game involves new rules. If we want to ensure this does not
become the zero sum game we have come to expect from our nuclear
policy, we have to re-imagine and redefine the relationship between
development and security. We can only claim a victory when the number
of nuclear weapons in the world and those prepared to use them equals
zero.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   6 Comments »
April 6, 2010

Does the nation need a national level exercise program?
Filed under: Preparedness and Response — by Christopher Bellavita on
April 6, 2010

Imagine a 7.8 Richter Scale earthquake near St. Louis, MO, on the New
Madrid fault line. Assume the earthquake causes extreme damage in 8
states along the Mississippi River. This includes over 89,000 dead,
nearly half a million people injured, more than 5 million people
homeless, loss of numerous bridges crossing the Mississippi, as well
as destruction of major oil, gasoline, and natural gas pipelines that
serve much of the Eastern Seaboard.
One might think this high consequence (low probability or high
probability — take your pick) event would make a natural subject for a
national level homeland security exercise.

Maybe not.
Perhaps there are some extreme homeland security events — call them
catastrophes – where the value of exercising top officials is more
symbolic than sensible.

—————————————————-
The Vacation Lane Blog — written by William Cumming (a frequent writer
in hlswatch) — began its internet life on Saturday with commentary
about the postponement of the national level exercise program.

Cumming argues in “The Sinews of Preparedness,”
… this Administration, like all before it, fails to understand
that the sinews of preparedness are built with exercises, from
table tops to full scale exercises, and with the personnel
including appointees that will actually be called on to run the
civil domestic crisis management system or be in the chain of
command for civil crisis events. Failure to be prepared only makes
it more likely that military dominated organizations, which tend
to ad hoc despite extraordinary funding, will drive the crisis
response with huge implications for the civil sector and
federalism.” my emphasis

On its face, the author’s recommendation seems sensible: training and
exercises will make for a more effective response when something real
happens.
Why should anyone believe that claim?

Aristotle said, “Excellence is an art won by training and habituation.
We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we
rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we
repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.”
One need look no further for evidence about the correctness of this
belief than the professional experiences of police, fire fighters,
emergency medical professionals, emergency managers, and other
responders.

The lessons from Aristotle, Mr. Cumming, and first responder
experiences may be true for “normal” disasters — earthquakes,
hurricanes, fires, floods, tornadoes, and so on.
I wonder if that truth about exercise has much value when it comes to
getting “top officials” ready for catastrophes.

—————————————————-
For FEMA/DHS, a catastrophe is any incident “that results in
extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption
severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment,
economy, national morale, and/or government functions.”

Catastrophes, as a colleague has written “are the nightmare scenarios
that can bring the nation to its knees.”
There do not appear to have been that many catastrophes in the past
half century of our history.

The colleague I just mentioned recently completed a study of the
federal part of the post 9/11 emergency planning and response system.
As a tangential part of his work, he noted there have been around 1900
presidential disaster declarations since 1953. He found only four of
the 1900 events were (definitional) catastrophes: Three Mile Island,
and Hurricanes Hugo, Andrew and Katrina.
You might add a few more to his list — like 9/11/01 in New York City,
Arlington, and Shanksville. But the number of catastrophes remains
small.

My colleague found that federal agencies played major “supporting”
roles in all of those catastrophes. But governors — maybe a mayor or
two — always retained control of what was going on in their
jurisdictions.
It’s my understanding (aided by experiences with early versions of
TOPOFF) that national level exercises have some play for state and
local officials, but for the most part, the general intention of the
exercises is to:

Support U.S. Government Officers’ preparation for managing national
crises, and accountability of those who support them.
I have no idea what role training and exercising state, city, or
federal officials — especially political officials — played in
successful or unsuccessful catastrophic response. I’ve looked for data
that sheds light on the utility of exercising for catastrophes, but so
far I’ve come up largely empty. (There is the 2004 “Hurricane Pam”
exercise example for New Orleans, of course. But that mostly suggests
preparedness requires something more than exercises.)

My understanding is the average tenure for a federal political
appointee — a top official — is between 18 months and 2 years. How
does one train and exercise federal appointed and elected officials
for an incident where there are “over 89,000 dead, nearly half a
million people injured, more than 5 million people homeless?”
Is there any evidence that justifies spending money on those officials
for such training and exercises?

Since 2005, the federal government has spent more than 200 million
dollars on national level exercises. Have those expenditures come
anywhere close to providing commensurate benefits? If those data are
not available, could the 200 million have been spent on some other
homeland security-related activities, including local exercises, that
might have increased the nation’s preparedness?
I suspect those are largely rhetorical questions, lost somewhere
inside the conventional wisdom that worships any homeland security
training and exercise as an unquestioningly good thing.

—————————————————-
One of the homeland security goals described in the Quadrennial
Homeland Security Review is to:

Foster Innovative Approaches and Solutions Through Leading-Edge
Science and Technology: Ensure scientifically informed analysis and
decisions are coupled to innovative and effective technological
solutions.
I like the sound of that goal. It says science matters.

I like the objectives of the goal even more:
Scientifically study threats and vulnerabilities: Pursue a
 rigorous scientific understanding of current and future threats to
 homeland security and the possible means to their prevention and
 mitigation.

Develop innovative approaches and effective solutions: Encourage
 and enable innovative approaches
Both objectives suggest we should look to science to validate our
prevention and mitigation efforts, and to lead the nation toward new
ways to think about what we do under the banner of homeland security.

—————————————————-
The National Exercise Program is a process technology, intended to
prepare mostly federal leaders for catastrophic events. I wonder if
there is any science undergirding that exercise program technology.

The national exercise program has been described recently as
“unrealistic, costly, and overscripted productions … an ‘elaborate
game’’ rather than opportunities for officials to work through
problems.”
I have personal anecdotes from TOPOFF 1, 2 and 3 that support the
accuracy of those views , at least for the early days of the exercise
program. I’ve also heard that — like many things in homeland security
— they have become better over time.

I am not arguing against a national exercise program. I do think,
however, it makes sense to ask about the “science” (in whatever sense
one wishes to use that term) that supports the benefit of national
level exercises.
I think it is fair to ask whether there are better uses for the money
allocated to national exercises.

My internet colleague William Cumming is worried that the
Failure to be prepared only makes it more likely that military
dominated organizations, which tend to ad hoc despite extraordinary
funding, will drive the crisis response with huge implications for the
civil sector and federalism.

If true catastrophes are as rare as the data suggests, perhaps there
is logic in purposively integrating the “military dominated
organizations” into civilian catastrophic planning.
If a catastrophe is an event that can bring the nation to its knees,
we might want to make sure the military is ready to help out.

It’s my understanding they are on the same side as the rest of us.
———————————————————————–

The paragraph that starts this post is from slides developed by Dr.
Rick Bissell, Department of Emergency Health Services, University of
Maryland, Baltimore County
—————-

Usually the comments start in a different section of the blog. Bill
and I corresponded over the weekend about his “The Sinews of
Preparedness,” post. Here is the exchange we had:
Me to Bill: nice title. i disagree with your claim and am writing
something for homeland security watch about it now. nice to see your
own blog.

———
Bill to me: Hey disagreement is good. Of course no way I can remove
the head of the messenger either.———Me to Bill: disagreement in a good
way, of course. i believe objectivity (and truth) do not reside in one
person, but in the community of people who care about issues and who
talk with each other about them. i don’t think there is either science
or experience to support the idea that national level exercises built
on catastrophic scenarios are worth the money. i think a catastrophe
means all the rules change and people have to improvise around their
existing relationships and expertise and experience. i’d much rather
have a no-notice national exercise (like Christine Wormuth and CSIS
recommended - -among other people) than the security theater that
TOPOFF turned into. I can easily envision scenarios where the military
will be our best option: e.g. – Imagine a 7.8 Richter Scale earthquake
near St. Louis, MO, on the New Madrid fault line. Assume the
earthquake causes extreme damage in 8 states along the Mississippi
River. This includes over 89,000 dead, nearly half a million people
injured, more than 5 million people homeless, loss of numerous bridges
crossing the Mississippi, as well as destruction of major oil,
gasoline, and natural gas pipelines that serve much of the Eastern
Seaboard.Who is ever going to be “prepared” for that? I think we need
new rules that incorporates military — in support to civilian
authority, maybe under national guard command — into the civilian
apparatus.I defer to your much more extensive experience with these
issues than i have. But I think science matters, and we only have
claims about the value of national level exercises. no real data (at
least that i’m aware of)———Bill to me: Well certainly agree in the
no-notice principal and that was statutorily mandated but never done
for TOPOFF. Do hoping you post a substantially similar entry on the
blog. Would be interested to see the comments. Since many exercises
are classified or have classified elements probably difficult to be
examined by outsiders. But the failure to have effective lessons
learned systems and processes does largely waste the efforts.Hey so
you come down on the side of science and ad hockery! And here I
thought science was built on reason and rationality. should have know
we can just guess and by golly our way through catastrophes. It does
seem to be the way DOD does things even though they want people to
believe otherwise. Certain ad hoc solutions allow maximum political
pressure to be asserted whatever with issues of equal protection, due
process, or even just basic social justice.Your argument speaks to the
system as is and mine speaks to the system as I believe it should be.Time
will tell and render the verdict whatever.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   17 Comments »

April 3, 2010
TSA: Turning to Mass Transit & Passenger Rail

Filed under: Ground Transport Security, Mass Transit & Rail Security,
Terrorist Threats & Attacks — by Jessica Herrera-Flanigan on April 3,
2010
Monday’s suicide bombing in Moscow’s subway system reminded us of the
threat to subway and train systems. While much of our attention has
focused on aviation security in recent months, the bombing reminds us
that rail systems remain an easy target for terrorists and militant
groups hoping to cause damage. While the U.S. has avoided such an
attack, the last fifteen years have seen several attacks carried out
around the world against such systems, as well as one thwarted attack
here in the U.S., including the following incidents:

1995: Sarin gas is released by members of Aum Shinrkyo on several
 lines of the Tokyo Metro that were passing through key areas of
 the Japanese government, killing 13 people and injuring countless
 others.
1995: Over a period of four months, several gas bottles exploded
 on the RER and the Metro in Paris, killing 8 and wounding more
 than 100 people. The attacks were attributed to the Armed Islamic
 Group.

2004: In February, a suicide bomber killed 41 people and injured
 more than 120 in an explosion on the Moscow metro system.
 Individuals linked to the militant Nikolai Kipkeyev were found
 guilty. In August, Kipkeyev died when a female suicide bomber he
 was escorting into a Moscow subway panicked upon seeing a police
 officer and detonated her bomb, killing 8 people and wounding 50
 others.
2004: A series of coordinated bombings take place on Madrid’s
 Cercanias commuter train, killing 191 people and wounding 1800
 others. A direct connection to Al Qaeda is not found, though
 Spanish authorities determine that the attacks were done by by an
 Al-Qaeda-inspired terrorist cell.

2005: A series of coordinated suicide attacks occur on London’s
 mass transit system, carried out by four British Muslim men,
 killing 52 people and injuring more than 700.
2006: Seven bombs explode on the Suburban Railway in Mumbai,
 killing 209 and injuring more than 700. The bombings were believed
 to be carried out by Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Students Islamic
 Movement of India.

2009: Najibullah Zazi is arrested in Denver for planning suicide
 bombings on the New York City subway system. On February 22, 2010
 he pled guilty and admitted that he was recruited by Al-Qaeda in
 Pakistan to blow up the New York City subway.
So who is responsible for coordinating the U.S. rail and subway
security systems here in the U.S.? The Transportation Security
Administration (TSA). Not only must TSA focus on aviation security
(without an Administrator in place), it must also focus on mass
transit and passenger rail security. According to the TSA’s website,
it does so by seeking to:

advance mass transit and passenger rail security through a
comprehensive strategic approach that enhances capabilities to detect,
deter, and prevent terrorist attacks and respond to and recover from
attacks and security incidents, should they occur. TSA’s strategic
priorities for mass transit and passenger rail security are:
 Focus efforts to mitigate high consequence risk to transit assets
and systems, particularly underwater and underground infrastructure;

Expand employment of random, unpredictable deterrence; and
 Build security force multipliers with training, drills and
exercises, and public awareness

According to the FY 2011 DHS Budget Request, TSA is undertaking the
following activities to secure mass transit, passenger rail, and bus:
shareholder collaboration with key stakeholders through its
 Regional Transit Security Working Group, which identifies regional
 priorities and resolves security needs. Much of TSA’s regional
 work is focused on Tier 1 Transit Security Grant Program cities,
 including New York City, Boston, D.C., Philadelphia, Chicago, Los
 Angeles, and San Francisco.

working with the American Public Transportation Association to
 develop consensus-based security standards for mass transit.
engaging in its “layered security operational test bed” to test
 operational and technological solutions for mass transit and
 passenger rail facilities.

In FY 2011, TSA requested $97.6 million to support its Surface
Transportation Inspection Program and explosive detection canine
program, a $29.4 million increase from FY 2010.
In terms of funding support for local mass transit areas, the
Transportation Security Grant Program has requested $300 million for
FY 2011. This money is allocated on a risk-based approach to eligible
mass transit and bus systems, as well as to Amtrak, to enhance
security measures on critical transit infrastructure. Guidelines for
the distribution of these funds are given in the DHS Appropriations
bills, as well as in the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11
Commission Act of 2007.

So how well is TSA doing on its efforts to better secure rail and and
subway systems? In a report entitled Transportation Security: Key
Actions Have Been Taken to Enhance Mass Transit and Passenger Rail
Security, but Opportunities Exist to Strengthen Federal Strategy and
Programs released last June, the Government Accountability Office
commended TSA for taking key steps to strengthen the systems. At the
same time, it noted that TSA faced a number of challenges hindering
its success. Specifically, GAO found that TSA had not fully combined
its assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence to conduct
its risk assessments. The GAO also noted that TSA faced a number of
coordination challenges- both with industry and other agencies at the
state, local, and federal levels. Information sharing of security
information remained a challenge, as did concerns regarding “potential
costs and the feasibility of implementing pending employee security
training requirements.”
The need to strengthen the federal relationships with transit agency
officials across the country is one that also appeared in another June
2009 GAO report entitled, Transit Security Grant Program: DHS
Allocates Grants Based on Risk, but Its Risk Methodology, Management
Controls, and Grant Oversight Can Be Strengthened. In the report, the
GAO noted that management and resource issues have resulted in delays
in approving projects and distributing funds. According to the report,
as of February 2009, transit agencies having spent only $21 million of
the $755 million that had been awarded between 2006 and 2008. To
correct the shortcomings, GAO recommended that DHS strengthen its
methodology for determining risk by developing a “cost-effective
method for incorporating vulnerability information into future
iterations of the” Transportation Security Grant Program.

It is safe to say that like much of TSA’s efforts on aviation
security, its mass transit and passenger rail efforts remain a work in
progress - showing some movement forward and continually evolving but
in need of improvement. Unfortunately, like our efforts in aviation
security, many efforts remain reactionary in nature. After the bombing
in Moscow, a number of transit agencies across the nation beefed up
their security, assigning more police, increasing K-9 teams, and
conducting random station sweeps. During those efforts,
vulnerabilities were uncovered. For example, in New York City, the
Associated Press reported that more than 4,000 security cameras in its
subways were not working and that the Metropolitan Transportation
Authority had cut the number of police patrols throughout its systems.
While the U.S. has been fortunate to not have seen a successful attack
carried out on a domestic mass transit and passenger rail system, its
efforts to secure such systems should be prioritized and expanded. In
particular, an increased focus on risk-based grants, information
sharing of key intelligence with relevant stakeholders, and
identifying and deploying preventive technologies are key to
strengthening our mass transit and passenger rail systems.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   3 Comments »

April 1, 2010
What zombies can teach homeland security.

Filed under: Biosecurity, General Homeland Security, Preparedness and
Response, Terrorist Threats & Attacks — by Christopher Bellavita on
April 1, 2010
A zombie is a “re-animated human corpse that feeds on living human
flesh.”

Mostly they serve as fodder for popular entertainment. But an attack
by real zombies would be anything but entertaining.
Four Canadian mathematicians who wrote “When Zombies Attack!:
Mathematical Modeling of an Outbreak of Zombie Infection” warn,

“… if zombies arise, we must act quickly and decisively to eradicate
them before they eradicate us.”
The scholars — Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad, and Robert J. Smith
— are from Carlton University and the University of Ottawa. They
developed what is surprisingly “the first mathematical analysis of an
outbreak of zombie infection.” The article will be published as
Chapter 4 in the soon to be released book “Infectious Disease Modeling
Research Progress.”

While obviously not realistic, their analysis “demonstrates… how
modeling can respond to a wide variety of challenges in biology.”
The link between their work and biological attacks, pandemics, and
related public health threats to the United States is an obvious one.

Why zombies matter to homeland security
The authors describe their basic model for zombie infection, discuss
equilibria and stability issues, and then suggest conditions under
which eradication of the zombie infection can occur. Based on their
analysis, they conclude “only quick, aggressive attacks can stave off
the doomsday scenario: the collapse of society as zombies overtake us
all.”

The chapter starts by discussing the origins of zombies in the
Afro-Caribbean spiritual belief system of “Vodou.” But the idea of the
zombie dates back at least to the Middle Ages, and has appeared in the
cultures of China, Japan, the Pacific, India, Persia, Arabia, and the
Americas.
As the reader familiar with the concept may recall, zombies have no
will of their own. Their heart and lungs and all their body functions
operate at minimal levels, at least according to the traditional view.

Modern zombies are very different from voodoo and folklore zombies.
Contemporary zombies are mindless monsters who do not feel pain and
who have an immense appetite for flesh. They have a particular hunger
for human brains (as the disturbing video at this link illustrates).
A zombie’s objective is to kill, eat or infect people. When a
susceptible person is bitten by a zombie, it leaves an open wound
contaminated by saliva, thus infecting the susceptible individual.

Informed speculation suggests the saliva disrupts oxygen flow to the
brain. The lack of oxygen seems to be the specific mechanism that
turns otherwise normal people into zombies.
Consequently in the few cases of zombie-ism that have been adjudicated
by courts, authorities have concluded that because the zombies suffer
from brain damage, they cannot be held accountable for the havoc they
cause.

This clearly has hampered — but not eliminated — the search for
effective prevention and mitigation strategies. Here is where the
Canadian team makes its, probably inadvertent, but still foundational
contribution to Homeland Security
Summary of the argument

In Section 2 of their paper, the authors outline the basic model
describing how — like a deadly virus — zombies grow and increase
(please see Figure 1, where S are those who are susceptible to attack,
Z are the zombies, and R are those who have been “removed” but who can
return to the arena after an encounter with Z). The authors correctly
note their model is “slightly more complicated than the basic SIR
susceptible, infected, and removed models that usually characterize
infectious diseases.”
basic-zombie-model

The authors discouragingly find that from the perspective of their
basic model, “In a short outbreak, zombies will likely infect
everyone.”
The remainder of the article discusses strategies available for
dealing with a zombie attack:

Section 3 (The basic model, with time latency),
Section 4 (The model, plus quarantine),

Section 5 (The model incorporating a cure for zombie-ism), and
Section 6 (Rapid and aggressively escalated destruction of zombies)

The interested reader can view the full analysis of each variation by
downloading the original paper here. I found the math to be slightly
impenetrable (see the figure below for an example). But the authors’
conclusions are starkly clear:
“An outbreak of zombies infecting humans is likely to be disastrous,
unless extremely aggressive tactics are employed against the undead.
While aggressive quarantine may eradicate the infection, this is
unlikely to happen in practice. A cure would only result in some
humans surviving the outbreak, although they will still coexist with
zombies. Only sufficiently frequent attacks, with increasing force,
will result in eradication, assuming the available resources can be
mustered in time.”

zombie-figure-2
The authors acknowledge the key difference between their model and
traditional views of infectious disease is in their model “the dead
can come back to life.”

They admit their scenario is unrealistic if taken literally, “but
possible real-life applications of their model may include
allegiance to political parties,… diseases with a dormant infection,”
and — one might add — a zombie-like commitment to certain beliefs,
attitudes, policies, and organizational arrangements.
The article ends by summarizing the strategic implications of the
analysis:

“A zombie outbreak is likely to lead to the collapse of civilization,
unless it is dealt with quickly. While aggressive quarantine may
contain the epidemic, or a cure may lead to coexistence of humans and
zombies, the most affective way to contain the rise of the undead is
to hit hard and hit often. As seen in the movies, it is imperative
that zombies are dealt with quickly, or else we are all in a great
deal of trouble.”
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   8 Comments »
March 30, 2010

The Open Question
Filed under: General Homeland Security, Intelligence and Info-Sharing,
State and Local HLS, Technology for HLS — by Mark Chubb on March 30,
2010

The open source intelligence debate took on new meaning for me on
Sunday night. Shortly after 8:00 PM a loud explosion shook houses all
across the east side of Portland, Oregon. What ensued afterwards
provides new insights not only into how intelligence is generated, but
also illustrates some of the new challenges we face in managing the
collection and analysis process.
Within minutes, more than 50 calls reporting the explosion came into
the local 911 center. Police and fire units responded to investigate,
but found nothing to indicate an emergency. No burning or collapsed
buildings, no casualties, no obvious signs of damage or disruption
were evident anywhere.

Public safety officials’ prompt response to this incident, like their
response to another big boom about two weeks earlier in the same area,
provided little comfort though because no one could confirm what had
caused the explosion. As you might expect, this opened the to door to
speculation as much as it opened the door to investigation.
Within minutes subscribers to the microblogging service Twitter had
invented and agreed to use the #pdxboom hashtag to track reports.
Within half-an-hour, an ad hoc collaboration started on Google Maps
was tracking and color-coding these reports in an effort to locate the
source of the noise. And more than 20 wiseguys had even created and
logged into an event marking the occasion on the social networking
site Foursquare using their wireless mobile devices.

The theories spawned by these efforts ran the gamut from the serious
(an earthquake boom) to the nonsensical (unicorns fighting or a house
falling on a wicked witch). But the map generated by the more serious
reports painted a much more compelling picture of the event. Efforts
by local officials and media outlets to isolate the source by
consulting the National Weather Service, the local Air National Guard
fighter wing and NORAD, the U.S. Geological Survey and various
utilities likewise proved fruitless.
Yet the public remained undeterred. Hundreds of people logged in over
the next several hours to record their experience of the event. Before
long some patterns became evident.

The next day, aided by daylight, armed with these online
contributions, information from the initial 911 reports and
information gathered following the previous incident, investigators
located the site of the explosion along a riverbank near downtown.
Fragments of a PVC pipe bomb were also recovered.
What did we learn from this incident? Well for starters, people want
to be of assistance, even in a town where the police are not currently
held in very high esteem due to two recent officer-involved shootings.
Second, they will seek out ways to make sense of confusing
experiences, which more often than not includes sharing their personal
observations and perspectives in a way that gives them meaning whether
or not they produce a plausible explanation. Finally, the speed with
which this process of sharing information about our common experience
advances will exceed anything we saw before the dawn of the
Information Age.

When we speak of intelligence we often conflate its epistemic and
ontological meanings. From an epistemic perspective, intelligence
involves identifying what we know, filling in gaps and discovering
missing elements that will help us build a coherent picture of the
situation. Interpreting this picture involves another aspect of
intelligence. Ontology addresses how we synthesize data by dictating
the sorts of frames we apply to create a shared sense of
understanding.
Neither of these approaches alone, however, answers for us the bigger
and as yet unanswered and therefore open question: “What was the
intention or purpose of the person who built and detonated this
device?”

We often assume that analysis and synthesis will lead us to the
answers we seek to teleological (thanks Phil) — as opposed to
epistemic or ontological — questions. Knowing what’s on the minds of
those who seek to disrupt our lives, not in some abstract ideological
or theological sense, but in the very tangible sense that links their
intentions and actions, might actually help us interdict such threats
before they emerge. If someone figures out a way to answer this
question through crowdsourcing, we could make real progress against
the threats we face.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   3 Comments »
85% More From The Private Sector About Critical Infrastructure

Filed under: Infrastructure Protection — by Christopher Bellavita on
March 30, 2010
I was reading a paper by my colleague Nick Catrantzos yesterday when I
came across this sentence:

“…infrastructure defense is assumed to fall primarily into the
hands of the private sector, which operates 85% of critical
infrastructure.”
I ranted a year ago about the 85% number in a post that appeared on
this blog.

The Number simply won’t die. It lives beyond truth or lie. Its reality
is independent of time and space.
So I wrote back to Nick summarizing what I believe is the problem with
The Number.

Nick — who loves the English language as a gardener treasures orchids
— once presented me with a knit picker. So he is aware of my tendency
to occasionally pole vault over mouse turds.
Nick also has spent time in the same Circus and has been known to pick
a nit or two, so he responded back with some evidence about the 85%
number. I pushed back. He returned fire. As did I.

Then he wrote something that shined a light on a bias I did not see I
had.
A year ago, I wrote:

…the 85% figure has been used to justify a laissez fair critical
infrastructure strategy. Private sector “ownership and control”
has been interpreted to mean government frequently has to ask
politely before it tries to do anything to improve safety and
security.
If the 85% figure is wrong — or at least unsupported by any
empirical basis — maybe the policies derived from that belief are
also wrong.

Basically, I thought the 85% number was used to justify the government
not pushing the private sector hard enough when it comes to protecting
critical infrastructure.
Nick — who is a security manager and former security consultant for
public and private organizations — described how this “who owns what”
issue looks from the private sector.

My dilemma, perhaps a distant cousin to your own, has been in
encountering an obdurate, logic-proof insistence by cops, fire
fighters, emergency managers, fusion center staff, and DHS minions to
define my employer and all critical infrastructure stewards as private
sector entities.
It does not matter how much we demonstrate that we are a public agency
and a regional extension of government. As far as these people are
concerned, we are private, hence unworthy of sensitive information
(even if we were the ones to originate it) and inherently suspect of
being profit driven (no matter how many wasteful, feel-good programs
we underwrite for some avowed public good). Even being part of the
same retirement system and driving vehicles with tax-exempt license
plates — two surefire convincers everywhere else — have no impact in
shaking the conviction that we are infrastructure stewards, hence
private sector mercenaries.

My unproven suspicion is that much of what is at the bottom of this
categorization is a sort of tribal urge to satisfy two unstated
objectives:
1. Limit the in-group to an established comfort zone and
organizationally and traditionally familiar faces.

2. Assure that the existing in-group gains and keeps primacy at the
trough of grants and other funding destined for public sector actors
who are new both to homeland security and critical infrastructure
protection.
If there are points to this fugue that resonate with me as an
infrastructure steward, they are these:

A. Critical infrastructure is definitely in both public and private
hands. Given the types of infrastructure that exist, it is reasonable
and credible to accept that they are mainly privately owned and
operated.
B. Whether that percentage figure of 85% is anything more than an
approximation or an archly crafted statistic meant to advance an
ulterior agenda is mildly interesting to an infrastructure steward. At
the end of the day, the hand on the wrench or on the SCADA system
comes from the same gene pool, skill set, and population.

C. Even a critical infrastructure operation that is entirely managed
by a public agency is going to have some private sector involvement
and exposure. Construction comes to mind. We are always building or
modifying facilities and upgrading systems. Contrary to popular
belief, even the wealthiest of public agencies cannot hire everyone
they meet. Contractors and subcontractors are as ubiquitous as they
are indispensable.
D. The original point of emphasizing private ownership and operation,
to the extent I absorbed one, seemed to be as a means of emphasizing
that protecting critical infrastructure is a shared responsibility and
one that would be imperiled by ignoring private sector stakeholders.
That point still makes sense to me.

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   3 Comments »

March 29, 2010
Did DHS Get It Right?

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Mark Chubb on March 29,
2010
CNN’s AC360º news magazine focused its Keeping Them Honest segment
Monday night on the question of whether or not political criticism of
the Department of Homeland Security’s ill-fated April 2009 report on
the rise right-wing extremism led to its withdrawal. As we like to say
in academic circles, “Duuuhh!”

Sadly, no one questioned whether the report was original work. I
attended an educational conference organized by the Center for
Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) at the Naval Postgraduate School
(NPS) hosted by George Washington University’s Homeland Security
Policy Institute in March 2009 during which Dr. Dave Brannan used
almost identical language to describe the threat posed by rising
right-wing militancy. He spoke plainly and passionately about signs he
was witnessing that suggested the country’s deteriorating economy, the
election of the nation’s first African-American president, the
increasing disillusionment of the evangelical right, and the
difficulties faced by veterans seeking to reintegrate following their
return from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan created a perfect storm for
ideologically motivated violence.
Today’s arrest of nine suspects in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio on
charges of seditious conspiracy is only the most recent evidence that
some of our fellow citizens may be moved to violence. Whether they are
linked to or took comfort from the overheated rhetoric surrounding the
Tea Party Movement and mainstream opposition to the Obama
Administration’s health insurance reform bill remains unclear, but it
probably did not discourage them.

Other media outlets have questioned whether the steeped rhetoric of
the right has become too astringent. At a minimum, some mainstream
commentators have suggested, the right’s conspiracy of silence when it
comes to disavowing extreme views, including those espousing violence,
may all too easily be taken for silent assent.
What should we make of all the chest-beating and gnashing of teeth
about the decision to withdraw the DHS report? Well, we are all
familiar with 20/20 hindsight. Rather than questioning whether DHS was
influenced to withdraw the report by political criticism or was
motivated to issue it as a way of currying political favor with the
new administration, we should question why its sources and methods
could not withstand the scrutiny to which this work was subjected when
it came to light.

We desperately need honest assessments of this sort and open sharing
of information with state and local officials to detect and interdict
genuine threats. But no one will condone the efforts required to
produce such intelligence unless we can have confidence in the
competence and independence of those those responsible for collecting
the information and conducting the analysis.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   5 Comments »
March 26, 2010

Breaking News: Harding withdraws at TSA…
Filed under: Aviation Security — by Jessica Herrera-Flanigan on March
26, 2010

Despite what seemed like a rather smooth nomination hearing process
this week, Retired Army Major General Robert Harding has withdrawn
from consideration as the nominee for Administrator at the
Transportation Security Administration. Gen. Harding becomes the
second nominee to withdraw his name from consideration. Erroll
Southers, formerly with the Los Angeles World Airport Police
Department, withdrew his name in January 2010 amidst opposition from
Republican lawmakers in Congress.
And the search for one of the nation’s most critical security jobs
begins again…

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   1 Comment »

Immigration- In the Background
Filed under: Immigration — by Jessica Herrera-Flanigan on March 26,
2010

While health care may have been grabbing most of the headlines, the
last two weeks have been busy on the immigration front. Just over a
week ago, Senators Schumer and Graham released an framework for
immigration legislation that they would like to move forward with in
the near future. Last Sunday, somewhere between “tens of thousands to
more than 200,000″ people descended on the National Mall for the
“March for America: Change Takes Courage” to promote immigration
reform.
On Tuesday, the House Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on
Immigration, Citizenship, Refugees, Border Security, and International
Law held an oversight hearing on the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration
Services (USCIS), touching upon a number of programs including
E-Verify and the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE)
program, as well as the agency’s Transformation Program, designed to
“transition the agency from a paper-based business model to a
centralized and consolidated electronic environment.”

Yesterday, the Senate Judiciary Committee marked up two bills - S.
2960 and S. 2974 - that would allow immigrants living in the U.S.
legally to work overseas without harming their immigration status. The
first bill would exempt immigrants who are refugees or asylum grantees
who are working for the federal government oversees to have their
immigration status adjusted to permanent resident without being
required to be physically in the U.S. for a year. The second would
allow permanent residents to go home to assist in recovery efforts in
their native country in the time of a disaster without an adverse
effect on their opportunity for naturalization here in the U.S.
Also held yesterday was a hearing in the House Homeland Security
Committee entitled “Visa Overstays: Can They be Eliminated?” Much of
that hearing focused on the development and implementation of a
biometric air exit system. Congress first requested an automated
entry/exit system in 1996 as part of the Illegal Immigration Reform
and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA).. The 9/11 Commission, in
its final report, called for the creation of such a system. In 2007,
congress mandated the use a system to biometrically track the exit of
all foreign visitors from US. Airports by June 30, 2009. That deadline
was not met.

During the hearing, Committee Members posed a number of questions to
the witnesses, specifically DHS National Protection & Programs
Directorate Undersecretary Rand Beers about the future of a biometric
air exit system. Members specifically asked why the Department did not
request any funding for the air exit program in its Fiscal Year 2011
Budget Request. In response, Beers stated that since no decisions have
been made on moving forward with a biometric exist system, it was
impossible for the Department to predict costs. He did say that DHS
would likely request funds in 2012 and that the estimates for the cost
of any exit program could top $1 billion over 10 years. The decision
on whether to continue with the program rests with Secretary
Napolitano, who is evaluating its future.
Interestingly, even if a program was implemented, the Department -
through Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) - would still have
to track those who have overstayed their visas and not left the
country. This effort is tremendous, according to testimony given by
the DHS IG Richard Skinner and ICE Assistant Secretary John Morton.
ICE, for its part, has focused on the biggest risks - fugitives,
potential terrorists and criminals - in its efforts to track down
those who have overstayed.

It is very likely, whatever happens on the comprehensive immigration
reform front, that immigration and border security will remain a
significant issue for the next several months. Among the things to
look out for:
Comprehensive Immigration Reform:

Will Senators Schumer and Graham’s bill, in the current toxic
 environment in D.C., be able to garner support this year and be
 considered?
If something goes through the Senate, how will the House respond?

What role will the White House play in shepherding the issue
 through Congress?
Border Security:

SBINet- what is its future?
Air Exit - what is its future?

How will the increasing violence along the U.S.-Mexico border
 affect our nation’s border security efforts?
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   6 Comments »
March 25, 2010

Cyber security and the two homelands hypothesis
Filed under: Cybersecurity — by Christopher Bellavita on March 25,
2010

The deputy assistant director of the FBI’s cyber division, Steven
Chabinsky, told a conference on Tuesday:
“The cyber threat can be an existential threat — meaning it can
challenge our country’s very existence, or significantly alter our
nation’s potential…. How we rise to the cybersecurity challenge will
determine whether our nation’s best days are ahead of us or behind
us.”

That’s serious language.
Several weeks ago I was with a group of homeland security executives
who agreed the cyber threat was really important. They were equally in
agreement the nation would not get serious about the threat until we
experienced the cyber equivalent of Pearl Harbor.

Why is that?
Beyond the usual “human nature” kinds of hypotheses, I think part of
the answer has to do with the difficulty understanding what the cyber
threat actually is. Why should it have the same fear status as, say, a
biological attack on the nation, a nuclear detonation in an American
city, a Mumbai-style attack on multiple-cities — pick your own
“challenge to our country’s existence” scenario?

Chabinsky talks about cyber terrorism, the theft of state and
corporate secrets, and cybercrime. I am sure there are detailed
reports available that give more information about why cyber is a
serious threat. And I mean to find and read them.
I also mean to track down a copy of CNN’s “We Were Warned: Cyber
Shockwave” attack simulation. I hear two stories about it: On the one
hand, the “presentation was excellent and it highlighted some very
real vulnerabilities.” On the other hand, “This scenario is removed
from reality. This could have possibly happened 9 years ago. The
pillars of the private sector have developed contingency plans just in
case of this type of “event”. At best this is a poorly constructed
“war game” at worst this is a piece of think tank propaganda.”

I am confused. So I am looking to learn about the cyber threat and
understand why it should be a high priority homeland security issue.
As a part of my education, I came across an out-of-frame essay in the
Financial Times free, but registration is required that sees cyber
space not as a way to exchange information, but as a “new continent,”
rich in both resources and peril. And before too long, many of us will
spend so much time living in the new continent that, “… almost any
human interaction of any kind will require use of the internet.”

From this perspective, we will have two homelands: the United States
and the Internet.
States embark on a scramble for cyberspace

By Misha Glenny
Published: March 17 2010 23:20 
It is time to stop thinking of cyberspace as a new medium or an
agglomeration of new media. It is a new continent, rich in
resources but in parts most perilous. Until 30 years ago, it had
lain undiscovered, unmined and uninhabited.
The first settlers were idealists and pioneers who set out from
San José, Boston and Seattle before sending back messages about
the exciting virgin lands that awaited humanity in the realm of
the net. They were quickly followed by chancers and adventurers
who were able to make fortunes by devising their own version of
the South Sea Bubble.

It was inevitable that the wondrous materials found all over this
territory would attract the interest of nation states. Now, the
scramble for cyberspace has begun. Military and intelligence
agencies are already staking their claim for the web’s high ground
as civilian powers lay down boundaries to define what belongs to
whom and who is allowed to wander where.
Cyberspace is being nationalised rapidly. In some parts of the
world, this has been going on for a while. Russia has been running
a programme known by the delightfully sinister acronym Sorm-2
(System of operational investigative activities) since the late
1990s. This ensures that a copy of every single data byte that
goes into, out of or around the country ends up in a vast storage
vault run by the Federal Security Service. You can read about
atrocities committed in Chechnya if you wish but you can be
confident that somebody will be looking over your digital
shoulder.

China, of course, has its “great firewall”, filtering politically
incorrect sites along with pornography and other forms of cultural
contamination. But of even greater import is China’s demand,
effectively conceded, that the US relinquish control of the
internet’s language and domain names through the Californian
non-profit organisation Icann. This is being transformed into a
United Nations-style regulatory operation. China will soon have
absolute say over the internet’s structure within its borders.
Note: this was written before this week's skirmish in the first
war between nation states and virtual states: i.e., China v.
Google.
The legal mapping of cyberspace in the west is more chaotic. But
we are now witnessing the establishment of myriad laws and rules
by legislators and in the courts. In a hearing this week … in
London following a major cybercrime trial, an attorney put his
finger on it when he argued that “we are entering a world where
almost any human interaction of any kind will require use of the
internet”.

So while there is clearly a pressing need to define rules that
apply in cyberspace, they are emerging at speed with little
coherent strategy behind them. Nobody knows where this process
will lead for two central reasons. The speed of technological
change means that the traditional tools of state used to carve up
the world in the 19th century, such as laws and treaties, are
often inadequate, if not entirely irrelevant, when applied to this
new domain.
Law enforcement agencies such as the FBI and the Serious Organised
Crime Agency in Britain have invested considerable time and money
in bringing down criminal networks on the web. But as the Internet
Crime Complaints Centre in the US has just reported, the losses
from cybercrime continue to climb at a staggering rate because
criminals adapt at lightning speed to new policing methods.

In the commercial world, major legislation concerning copyright …
is unlikely to withstand the second great variable – the coming of
age of the net generation. Laws banning file-sharing are likely to
prove as unpopular as the poll tax that helped bring down the
Thatcher government. They also look utterly unenforceable.
As a harbinger of change, we are seeing political parties
springing up throughout Europe with names such as the Internet
party or the Pirate party, which understand the web as simply part
of human DNA. “In the collision between the old and the new on the
web,” argues Rex Hughes, a Chatham House fellow who is leading a
cybersecurity project, “the old always wins the first few rounds
but eventually they die off.” my emphasis

But the greatest battle is happening in the area of cyberwarfare
and cyberespionage. Symbolically, the US designated cyberspace as
the “Fifth Domain” last June and the first man-made one after
land, sea, air and space. Nato lawyers are trying to work out how
the laws of war operate in cyberspace. Hysteria is accompanying
this new arms race, as when Admiral Mike McConnell, former
director of US National Intelligence, claimed at a Senate hearing
last month that “if the nation went to war today in a cyberwar, we
would lose”.
Meanwhile, the phenomenon of “anonymisation”, so useful for
cybercrime, is a gift to intelligence agencies as they sniff into
every corner of the web to find out who is up to what.

None of this would amount to a hill of beans were it not for the
attorney cited above’s point that everything we do is somehow
mediated by the web. Governments are becoming obsessed about the
need to control the internet but have yet to work out how to do
this without suffocating the noble goal of those pioneers who
merely wanted to facilitate communication between ordinary people.
Heaven forbid!
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   2 Comments »
March 24, 2010

Failure is Fertilizer
Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Mark Chubb on March 24,
2010

Much of what passes for recovery falls under the broad heading
“learning from our mistakes.” This approach to learning leaves a lot
to be desired.
For starters, when we examine our failures, we almost inevitably focus
more on the consequences than the causes. When we do consider causes,
we tend to focus only on execution errors, forgetting that mistakes
arise from failures of intention, failures of execution, or both. And,
finally, our efforts to address failures all too often tempt us to
look for someone to blame before we have identified something we
should change.

When problems that lead us down the path to failure have no simple or
clearly identifiable solutions, we often assume that no one is to
blame. This overlooks the fact that we often had a choice over the
path we took, or whether to embark on the journey at all.
Accepting responsibility for recovery begins by acknowledging that
failure is like fertilizer. A little bit can help us grow. But too
much can kill us.

A good gardener only applies fertilizer when it is indicated, and,
even then, she carefully selects the fertilizer to match the soil
conditions, climate and a host of other variables. When we look to
learn from failure, it would behoove us to take similar care and
exercise considerable discretion.
Here are ten principles that can help us approach recovery from a more
positive and productive perspective:

1. Acknowledge the loss. Do not start by assuming the future will be
better simply because the worst has already happened. Allow people
time to grieve and take note of the things they valued about the
people and places they lost. These values figure prominently when it
comes to deciding a vision of the future.
2. Avoid the temptation to blame others. We would all like to believe
someone else is responsible for our misfortune. When we treat those
affected by disaster like victims rather than recognizing them as
resources, that is effectively what we are doing. It is too easy and
far too convenient to assume anyone experiencing a disaster either had
it coming or is no longer capable of taking care of himself. No single
decision or action produces a disaster; it takes a community. Leave it
to the community to decide when (or even if) it’s appropriate to lay
blame. In the immediate aftermath of an event, those directly affected
by a disaster usually have much higher priorities and would rather get
to work rebuilding their lives.

3. Question assumptions. When we look at the effects of a disaster, it
is far too easy to allow ourselves to assume others could see it
coming as clearly as we see it after the fact. Even well-prepared
communities that have carefully assessed their hazards and
vulnerabilities cannot foresee with accuracy or precision how any
particular part of the community or its infrastructure will perform
when disaster strikes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is itching for a
fight.
4. Account for the effects of actions and intentions. Our assumptions
tend to inform our intentions. When our assumptions prove incorrect,
we should consider the untoward consequences unexpected only insofar
as they are unwanted. Unless we recognize and take responsibility for
our original intentions and the latent effects of the decisions and
actions they influenced, we are liable to lose the respect of others
even if we do not repeat our mistakes.

5. Assess what worked. Murphy may be an optimist, but he is not an
emergency manager. Even when it seems that everything that could go
wrong did go wrong, a surprising number of things probably worked well
or at least better than expected in light of what happened. In fact,
most disasters result from a series or chain of small errors the
absence of any one of which could either have prevented or at least
minimized the subsequent consequences. Many big things often go right
even when the tumblers fall into place and allow a small error to
unlock the door opening everyone up to a major disaster. When the
cause or consequences were foreseen or even voiced but not acted upon,
it can be especially important to acknowledge the courage of those who
came forward and the correctness of their actions.
6. Analyze alternatives. In the heat of disaster response, officials
rarely consider multiple possibilities or competing courses of action.
Even when the situation seems clear and everyone agrees on the goals,
the stakes are often too high, the resources too constrained, and the
time pressure too great to make good the enemy of good enough. As the
dust settles, literally, and ambiguity gives way to awareness of the
task ahead, decision-makers must avoid falling into the trap of making
decisions about recovery the same way they made them during response.
If alternatives are not immediately apparent, it is almost always a
sign that we are trying to move too quickly or have too few people
involved in framing the problem, much less offering potential
solutions.

7. Access local knowledge and listen to aspirations. Like a family
confronting the grieving process, communities often need rituals and
structure to help them embrace the changes that come from the passing
of a loved one. The early phases of a disaster response are too hectic
to provide this structure, but as the response winds down and recovery
begins, officials need to recognize that involving the people affected
by the disaster in decisions about their future begins with simple
questions. Many of these are mundane questions like those surrounding
a funeral such as burial or cremation, the location of a memorial
plot, picking songs for the funeral or memorial service and a
designating a charity to receive memorial gifts. The answers guiding
individual preferences about such matters often reflect the local
culture and customs. As time goes by, people will begin to take charge
of their lives again, and they should be encouraged to do so at their
own pace. If you listen carefully, you can tell how far long they have
come by the sorts of aspirations they express for their futures.
8. Act with local assent. Aside from the stark reminder of our
vulnerability to forces greater than ourselves, disasters remind us
how much we depend on one another for the simplest things. When an
individual or community asks for help, it does not give up its right
to make decisions for itself, especially about matters that have a
direct impact on its safety, health or welfare. Too much aid is
conditioned either on evidence of need or donor expectations. Giving
should make both the donor and the recipient feel good about
themselves. Real giving comes not from an open hand, but from an open
mind and an open heart. Leaving decisions about how aid is dispensed
and what it gets spent on with those who receive the help rather than
those who lend a hand should go without saying, but it doesn’t. If we
are wise enough to leave well enough alone and let people make
decisions for themselves, they will often surprise us by asking for
less than we are prepared to give, using it more widely than we could,
doing better work than we expect and in the end getting back on their
feet faster and fitter.

9. Anchor all changes in community capital. One of the best ways to
assure donors that their resources will be used wisely is to leverage
community capital. Even the poorest communities have vast and diverse
stores of capital, many of which remain under appreciated before a
disaster and therefore unrecognized after one occurs. Almost everyone
appreciates the importance of financial and material capital, and the
importance of natural capital to the development of communities and
their economies is well known. But none of these resources will
produce meaningful gains in community welfare without robust stores of
human and social capital. If nothing else, disasters present an ideal
opportunity to develop people and rally them around a cause bigger
than themselves. Sustainable development cannot occur unless
communities use their resources to become more resilient.
10. Atone and attest. Even when communities see no value in laying
blame for a disaster at the feet or any one person or institution,
they cannot move on without accepting individual and collective
responsibility for the failures that left them vulnerable in the first
place. Any successful recovery requires people to make amends for such
errors and affirm their intention to do things that reflect the
lessons they learned from the last disaster.

If failure in the form of disaster is like fertilizer, then disaster
recovery must take account of the additional steps required to grow
more resilient communities. With these ten principles in mind, it
should be clear that aerating the ground, selecting our seeds
carefully, casting them freely, watering them regularly and sharing
responsibility for the weeding and the harvesting are essential to
success.
Share This Post:

Digg
Reddit

TwitThis
Facebook

Yahoo! Buzz
Google

E-mail this story to a friend!
Print this article!

Permalink   9 Comments »
March 23, 2010

The reflective practitioner in homeland security
Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Christopher Bellavita on
March 23, 2010

The reflective homeland security practitioner is someone who does
daily battle in the messy world of the real, while not losing sight of
what might be.
The reflective practitioner is the man or woman with the guts and
skill to use power, and the contemplative patience to wait for
opportunity.

The reflective practitioner in homeland security combines the insight
to know what should be done, with the genius to know he or she is not
the only one in the arena with insight.
The reflective practitioner is someone who knows many things, the
first of which is how much more there is to learn.

———————————
On Friday, the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense
and Security — sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security — will
graduate another cohort of reflective practitioners. I am posting the
titles of their master’s degree theses to illustrate the range of
topics covered by their reflective interest. Many of the theses —
adding to what we know, think, and believe about homeland security —
will be available through the NPS Dudley Knox library in a few weeks.

The Naval Postgraduate School is not the only place homeland security
professionals systematically reflect on their practice. There are
hundreds of other academic programs — some small, some quite large —
that encourage reflection about homeland security.
One need not be a registered student to be a reflective homeland
security practitioner. Reflection also takes place in scholarship, at
conferences, on blogs, and (I am informed by mostly reliable sources)
in bars.

I am further informed that reflecting is bars is a long honored
tradition among practitioners.
Tacitus, a Roman historian, wrote about council meetings where the
participants drank massive quantities of wine, believing one could not
lie very well if one were drunk. Hence the doctrine: in vino veritas.

A few years after Tacitus, another reflective practitioner, Marcus
Aurelius, said “‘Wrestle to be the man philosophy wished to make you.”
The authors of the works described below each wrestled — with ideas,
work pressures, family pressures, and life — to add light to the still
forming world of homeland security. Their efforts hint at how much
more there remains to learn.

———————————
Prostitution as a Possible Funding Mechanism for Terrorism

Interagency Modeling Atmospheric Assessment Center: Operations
 Framework Model
An Epidemiological Approach to the Radicalization Process

Enhancing Unity of Effort in Homeland Defense, Homeland Security
 and Civil Support Through Interdisciplinary Education
The Contribution of Police and Fire Consolidation to the Homeland
 Security Mission

Applying a Community Policing Strategy to the Aviation Domain
Achieving Shared Situational Awareness During Steady-State
 Operations in New York State: A Model for Success

Ensuring the Endgame: Facilitating the Use of Classified Evidence
 in the Prosecution of Terrorist Subjects
Synchronizing Federal Operational Planning for National
 Catastrophes

Homeland Security Advisory System: An Assessment of its Ability to
 Communicate A Risk Message
Are the Means of the Next Terrorist Attack Already in the Country?
 An Analytical Examination of Cargo Containers That Have Entered
 the United States

Validation of Rational Deterrence Theory: Analysis of U.S.
 Government and Adversary Risk Propensity and Relative Emphasis on
 Gain or Loss
Fusion 2.0: The Next Generation of Fusion in California: Aligning
 State and Regional Fusion Centers

Effective State, Local, and Tribal Police Intelligence: The New
 York City Police Department’s Intelligence Enterprise — A Smart
 Practice
Collaboration in the Metropolitan Medical Response System

Should Cops be Spies? Evaluating the Collection of National
 Security Intelligence by State, Local and Tribal Law Enforcement
Arizona Law Enforcement Biometrics Identification and Information
 Sharing Technology Framework

Leveraging Rural America in the Fight Against Terrorism in America
 through the use of Conservation Districts
Improbable Success: Risk Communication and the Terrorism Hazard

Homeland Security: The President Has No Clothes — The Case for
 Broader Application of Redteaming within DHS.
Succession Planning in Homeland Security — How Can We Ensure the
 Effective Transfer of Knowledge to a New Generation of Employees?

Leveraging Successful Collaborative Processes to Improve
 Performance Outcomes in Large-Scale Event Planning: Superbowl — A
 Planned Homeland Security Event
Defining the Role and Responsibility of the Fire Service within
 the Homeland Security Discipline

The Collaborative Capacity of the NYPD, FDNY and EMS in New York
 City: A Focus on the First Line Officer
Community Preparedness: Creating a Model for Change

Share This Post:
Digg

Reddit
TwitThis

Facebook
Yahoo! Buzz

Google
E-mail this story to a friend!

Print this article!
Permalink   2 Comments » Next Page »

Search Site:
------------
 

Categories:
-----------
 

Aviation Security
Biosecurity

Border Security
Budgets and Spending

Business of HLS
Chemical Security

Congress and HLS
Cybersecurity

DHS News
Events

General Homeland Security
Ground Transport Security

Homeland Defense
Humor

Immigration
Infrastructure Protection

Intelligence and Info-Sharing
International HLS

Investigation & Enforcement
Legal Issues

Mass Transit & Rail Security
Organizational Issues

Port and Maritime Security
Preparedness and Response

Privacy and Security
Radicalization

Radiological & Nuclear Threats
Risk Assessment

State and Local HLS
Strategy

Technology for HLS
Terrorist Threats & Attacks

 
Most Recent Posts:
------------------

ca·tas·tro·phe kuh-tas-truh-fee noun
But Wait, There’s More!

Homeland Security in states, cities and other locales: a
 30,000 foot view
Immigration: Front and Center

Homeland Security - What Is it?
No rush to judgment here

Volunteer Does Not Equal Free
Smarting from grant crack

15 Years Later: Remembering Oklahoma City…
April 19, 1995

 
Archives:
---------

April 2010
March 2010

February 2010
January 2010

December 2009
November 2009

October 2009
September 2009

August 2009
July 2009

June 2009
May 2009

April 2009
March 2009

February 2009
January 2009

December 2008
November 2008

October 2008
September 2008

August 2008
July 2008

June 2008
May 2008

April 2008
March 2008

February 2008
January 2008

December 2007
November 2007

October 2007
September 2007

August 2007
July 2007

June 2007
May 2007

April 2007
March 2007

February 2007
January 2007

December 2006
November 2006

October 2006
September 2006

August 2006
July 2006

June 2006
May 2006

April 2006
March 2006

February 2006
January 2006

December 2005
 

HLS Links
---------
CRS Reports on Homeland Security

Department of Homeland Security
DHS Centers of Excellence

DHS Inspector General Reports
DHS Scheduled Events

DHS Websites
FAS Terrorism Documents

FindLaw Docs: Terrorism
GAO Reports on Homeland Security

GlobalSecurity.org - Homeland Security
Google News: Homeland Security

Homeland Security Affairs Journal
Homeland Security Bibliography

Homeland Security News Sites
Homeland Security Policy Books (Amazon)

Homeland Security Think Tanks
House Homeland Security Committee

HSI Weekly Newsletter
International Homeland Security Agencies

Journal of Homeland Security & Emergency Mgt.
MIPT Homeland Security

NTI Global Security Newswire
Security Management Library

Senate HSGAC
State Homeland Security Offices

Technorati: Homeland Security
Texas A&M: Homeland Security Taxonomy

Twitter: Homeland Security
White House: Homeland Security

Yahoo! Full Coverage: Terrorism
 

Homeland Security Blogs
-----------------------
beSpacific

Bruce Schneier
CGBlog

Chemical Facility Security News
Coast Guard Report

Computerworld: Security
Counterterrorism Blog

Crisis Blogger
DHS Leadership Journal

Disaster Zone
Effect Measure

H5N1 Blog
Home Station

Homeland Reading List
Homeland Stupidity

HSDL Weblog
HuffPo: Homeland Security

In Case of Emergency, Read Blog
Operational Risk Management

Preparedness and Response
Privacy Lives

Security Debrief
The Homeland Security Blog

Threat Level
Travel Security Blog

TSA: Evolution of Security
US-CERT Current Activity

USCG - iCommandant
Vital Systems Security

W. David Stephenson
 

Other National Security Blogs
-----------------------------
Abu Muqawama

Across the Aisle
American Footprints

Armchair Generalist
Arms Control Wonk

Blogs of War
CQ Spy Talk

Danger Room
Democracy Arsenal

FP Passport
Glenn Greenwald

Global Guerillas
Greta’s Links

Haft of the Spear
Jeff Jonas

MountainRunner
National Security Advisors

Rapid Recon
Secrecy News

Seeker Blog
Sic Semper Tyrannis

Small Wars Journal
Sources and Methods

Strategic Security Blog
The Cable

The Washington Note
Thomas P.M. Barnett

Tom Ricks
War and Piece

War Is Boring
Washington Realist

Zenpundit
Zero Intelligence Agents

 
Meta
----

RSS 0.92
RSS 2.0

Atom
Wordpress

Notices
-------
Site Meter Creative Commons License

Template adapted from Blue Horizon, designed by Kaushal Sheth.
so buy generic viagra online only above buy generic viagra online as Right on! too do in outta sight generic viagra cheap was
had most can yours generic viagra cheap as
in the was any where they does ourselves a an such do
should few being how she both with it
go there! from about into were off whom herself am and off
to having look been
had while other in for he during under most
me our how as does know all hers generic medication does
this once which see once
do visit - again again here are too your
its these was where me has until me Right on! your go there!
on above for does both was under he
doing him it down very again he myself nor such or our
her so maybe other and very off its
should go there! those which into generic viagra cheap been were buy generic viagra online because your but other
can to been buy generic viagra online those is Right on! whom maybe