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A Rational Approach to the Global Warming Issue

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Friday, 13 July 2007 11:53

A Rational Approach to the Global Warming Issue

All ten of the propositions listed below must be proven true before
any significant time, effort, and resources should be expended on
costly policy measures in what (even if it were necessary) would be a
doomed effort to mitigate the supposed threat from climate change –
measures like mandatory limits on emissions (Al Gore), cap-and-trade
(EU), or wartime carbon rationing (United Kingdom).

The Ten Commandments of the “Consensus”

“Consensus” Proposition Our conclusion

1. That the debate is over and all credible climate scientists are
agreed. Demonstrably false

2. That the scientists and scientific bodies promoting the scare are
honest. Demonstrably false

3. That temperature has risen above natural variability and is
exceptional. Very unlikely

4. That changes in solar irradiance are an insignificant forcing
mechanism. Demonstrably false

5. That greenhouse-gas increase is the main forcing agent of
temperature. Not proven

6. That temperature will rise far enough to do more harm than good.
Very unlikely

7. That continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will be very harmful to
life. Unlikely

8. That the environmental benefits of remediation will be
cost-effective. Very unlikely

9. That taking precautions, just in case, would be the responsible
course. Demonstrably false

10. That scientists still enjoy enough academic freedom to arrive at
the truth. Demonstrably false

If climate scientists are not agreed that the debate on climate change
is over, then we ought not to spend the $500 billion per year
advocated by Stern (2006) to mitigate its effects. If the most
vociferous doomsayers can be shown to have acted other than in good
faith, we ought not to pay the heavy cost of believing them. If
temperature has not risen significantly above its natural increase
following the end of the cold period of the Damon Minimum in 1910,
then there is little we can do to influence the temperature, because
natural variability is beyond our control. If the Sun is a major cause
of the observed temperature increase, we cannot affect it. If
greenhouse gases are not the main reason why temperature is rising,
stabilizing them will only make a marginal difference. If temperature
will not rise far enough to do more harm than good, there is no cause
for alarm.

If continuing emissions are not likely to be harmful to life, there is
no reason for action. If the proposed carbon-emission limits and other
costs of remedial action would outweigh the benefits, taxpayers should
not be burdened with them. If the new polluters of the third world
will not deny themselves the growth we have enjoyed, nothing we do
will make enough difference to be worth doing. If the “precautionary
principle” can be shown in other fields to have done more harm than
good, then there is no a-priori justification for applying it to the
“global warming” scare. Finally, if the increasing desperation of the
alarmists as their scientific case unravels leads them to try to
throttle the academic freedom of scientists whose research shows that
there is little to fear and much to gain from a warmer world, the
resulting misallocation of resources towards addressing this
non-problem will – as always – hit the poorest hardest.

For the protection of the poor from the waste of many thousands of
billions of dollars which may well arise if the “global warming” scare
is permitted to continue unchallenged and if the majority of the mass
media is permitted to continue to allow the alarmist viewpoint to
dominate, then it is necessary that the falsity of the ten
propositions upon which the “consensus” case rests be clearly
demonstrated.

Since Arrhenius (1896) the potential effect of increased CO2
concentrations in the atmosphere has been exaggerated. It is time for
the exaggeration to stop, the non-problem of “global warming” to be
set aside as irrelevant, and the real problem of impending worldwide
energy shortage to be properly addressed.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 14 April 2010 13:01

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