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Gene Marcial's Stock Picks June 30, 2009, 8:25PM EST

Marcial: Generic Lipitor Prospects Spur Watson Pharma
=====================================================
Watson Pharmaceutical shares get a boost after it acquires a company
with rights to the generic version of Pfizer's cholesterol
blockbuster, Lipitor
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http://investing.businessweek.com/services/charts/chart.asp?sym=WPI&d=365&w=600&h=300
Watson Pharmaceuticals—52-week price

By Gene Marcial
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BW's Gene Marcial
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There is nothing like a blockbuster drug—or the prospect of coming up
with such a winner—to catapult a pharmaceutical company's stock to
lofty levels. That's been the experience in the past few days of
Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI), whose stock jumped to a 52-week high of
33.97 a share on June 30 from 28 just two weeks earlier. The stock
traded as low as 20 in mid-October.

The catalyst for Watson's rise: The company will become an authorized
seller of a generic version of Lipitor, Pfizer's cholesterol-lowering
product. Lipitor is the world's largest-selling drug in dollar terms.
On June 16, Watson agreed to pay $1.7 billion for the privately owned
Arrow Group, a maker of specialty and generic drugs which owns the
U.S. rights to sell the authorized generic version of Lipitor after
Pfizer (PFE) loses patent protection in November 2011. Lipitor
generated global sales of $13.6 billion last year, according to drug
research group IMS Health (RX). The combined Watson/Arrow companies
(the purchase will close in the second half of 2009) will produce
about $3.5 billion in annual revenues, with operations in more than 20
countries, according to Watson CEO Paul M. Bisaro. He says an Indian
unit of Japan's Daiichi Sankyo (4568.T) shares the U.S. rights to the
generic Lipitor.

Estimated 10% Annual Growth
Here is how the marketing of the generic will work: Pfizer will supply
Watson with Lipitor, which Watson will then place in its own bottle
with its own generic label. Pfizer will get a yet-undisclosed amount
in royalty fees.

The U.S. market for Lipitor is about half the total worldwide sales,
so presumably the generic version could produce revenues of upwards of
$6 billion a year for its makers. Bisaro notes that the generic
versions usually fetch about 40% to 50% of the brand product's price.
Exclusive of the generic Lipitor sales, Watson expects sales for the
combined Watson-Arrow to grow by some 10% a year.
Bisaro declines to estimate how much the generic version of Lipitor
will produce in revenues when launched in 2011. But he figures profits
for the combined companies could grow by more than 10% annually.
Without a doubt, he says, Arrow and the Lipitor generic "will be very,
very important to Watson's sales in the U.S."

Outside the U.S., Bisaro says, Watson will sell its own generic
Lipitor without depending on Pfizer's manufacturing capability. So far
Watson's other generic products have been selling well, he says.
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